Does immigration really drive up crime? Not according to the evidence

Immigration and crime were once again central themes throughout the US presidential election campaign. The belief that immigration drives up crime is one of the oldest – and strongest – convictions held by the public, spanning over a century in the US and elsewhere.

This view remains deeply rooted despite mounting evidence to the contrary, in large part thanks to politicians such as Donald Trump, who are all too keen to amplify this narrative. Since his first presidential campaign announcement in June 2015, Trump has persistently linked immigration to crime.

At that time, he stated: “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re sending people that have lots of problems … They’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime.” He has since stepped up this rhetoric.

In the final stretch of his recent presidential campaign, he made claims such as: “The corrupt media is outraged that I keep talking about migrant crime and the migrant crime epidemic. It’s the worst thing that’s happened to our country in 50 years. They’re taking over our small towns and cities.”

According to survey evidence from the Pew Research Center, an American thinktank based in Washington DC, immigration and crime were two of the top three issues for Trump voters in the 2024 election, after the economy.

But what does the evidence really show? Our analysis reveals that studies consistently find no causal link between immigration and increased crime across a variety of countries. Research from the US, including both older and more recent studies, as well as research on Italy and the UK, demonstrates that immigration does not have a significant impact on crime rates.

Our paper also provides new evidence from Europe that reinforces this conclusion. After analysing 15 years of data on immigration inflows and crime rates across 216 regions in 23 European countries, we found no significant link between immigration levels and crime rates.

Indeed, through the application of robust causal methods, our findings demonstrate that even in areas experiencing substantial immigration, crime rates do not rise – and may even decline slightly – as immigration increases.

Why perceptions and reality diverge

One of the main reasons why the belief that immigration drives crime has persisted for so long is the influence of media and political rhetoric. During an election campaign, for example, selective coverage and targeted political messages can fuel public fears.

In Chile, where the foreign-born population tripled over a decade in the early 2000s amid a booming economy, public concern about crime intensified and demand for private security increased. However, research indicates that this surge in immigration had no impact on crime rates, and that intense media coverage played a significant role in shaping and amplifying public misperception.

Such negative messaging, though effective (as exemplified by Trump’s successful campaign), often diverges sharply from reality. Developing policies that focus on the social and economic integration of immigrants, rather than assumptions based on fear, can promote safer and more cohesive communities.

This isn’t to say migrants are not involved in crime. In fact, immigrants are often over-represented in the prison populations of many host countries.

But the fact this doesn’t lead to a rise in crime rates, according to our analysis, could be because immigrant populations are often too small to alter crime rates significantly. And it is also possible that some form of offender substitution occurs, where immigrants replace natives in local “crime markets”.

One strand of research has explored whether the over-representation of immigrants in crime statistics may stem from external factors, such as restricted legal status or limited economic opportunities, rather than any inherent criminal propensity.

Our review highlights how legal work permits and stable employment are directly linked to reductions in crime rates. For example, in cases where certain Eastern European immigrants to other countries in Europe were granted legal work permits, their crime rates dropped by over 50%.

This is consistent with separate research that finds that granting immigrants legal status can lead to significant reductions in criminal activity, and that policies expanding legal access to work can help reduce crime rates among immigrant populations.

In fact, one study from March 2024 that examined long-term trends in the US revealed that immigrants today are much less likely to be imprisoned, compared with the 1960s. The same study attributes this reduction in crime to better work opportunities and more stable family structures among male immigrants. These insights provide a pathway toward policies that value integration over exclusion.

Expanding access to legal work, particularly for asylum seekers and other vulnerable groups, could foster safer communities. But restrictive policies focused on criminalising undocumented immigrants or barring them from employment may, paradoxically, increase crime.

As the US considers its approach to immigration, prioritising causal evidence over fear-driven narratives could pave the way for policies that benefit both immigrants and the communities they join. By fostering economic participation and addressing public misperceptions, we can build fairer, safer societies for all.

Paolo Pinotti receives funding from the European Research Council and the Italian Ministry of University and Research.

Olivier Marie receives funding from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO).