Alexander Richard Braczkowski, Research Fellow at the Centre for Planetary Health and Resilient Conservation Group, Griffith University, Arjun M. Gopalaswamy, Research Associate, Department of Conservation Management, Nelson Mandela University, Duan Bigg
For nearly 15 years almost no information was available on the population status of Uganda’s large carnivores, including those in its largest national park, Murchison Falls. These species represent a critical part of Uganda’s growing tourism economy. The country is home to the famed tree-climbing lions, which are much sought after for this unique behaviour. Together, lions and leopards generate tens of thousands of dollars annually from safari viewing and allied activities.
Keeping an eye on the proverbial prize could not be more critical for the country. When wildlife isn’t monitored rigorously, populations can disappear within just a few years, as tigers did in India’s Sariska tiger reserve.
But many people working in conservation discourage monitoring. They argue that a “bean counter” approach to conservation overlooks the funds and actions that save animals. Others simply say that it is a hard thing to do at scale and particularly for animals that are naturally shy, have big home ranges (sometimes over multiple countries), and occur in very low numbers.
Even in a comparatively small African country – Uganda ranks 32nd in size out of 54 countries – how does one cover enough ground to see how populations of carnivores are faring? This has been the challenge of our work in Uganda for nearly a decade now, monitoring African lions, leopards and spotted hyenas.
Our two recent studies in Murchison Falls and six protected areas across the country sought to address the problem by drawing on a wide range of local and international experts who live and work in Uganda. Working with the Ugandan government’s Uganda Wildlife Authority research and monitoring team, we set out to identify and bring together independent scientists, government rangers, university students, lodge owners and conservation managers in the country’s major savanna parks.
We hoped to cover more ground with people and organisations that wouldn’t traditionally work together. Doing so exposed many of these individuals for the first time to the science and field skills needed to build robust, long term monitoring programmes for threatened wildlife.
The result is the largest, most comprehensive count of African lions, leopards and spotted hyenas. We found spotted hyenas to be doing far better than we expected. But lions are in worrying decline, indicating where conservation efforts need to be focused. Beyond that, our count proved the value of collaborating when it comes to generating data that could help save animals.
Our unique approach
Inspired by Kenya’s first nationwide, science-based survey of lions and other carnivores in key reserves, the first important step of this study was to secure the collaboration of the Uganda Wildlife Authority’s office of research and monitoring. Together, we identified the critical conservation stakeholders in and around six protected areas. These are Pian Upe Wildlife Reserve, Kidepo Valley, Toro Semliki, Lake Mburo, Queen Elizabeth and Murchison Falls. Leopards and hyenas occur in some other parks (such as Mount Elgon and Rwenzori National Park) but resource constraints prevented us from surveying these sites.
We had no predisposed notions of who could or would participate in our carnivore surveys, only that we wanted people living closest to these species in the room.
We shortlisted lodge owners, government rangers, independent scientists, university students from Kampala, NGO staff and even trophy hunters. All came together for a few days to learn about how to find carnivores in each landscape, build detection histories and analyse data. We delivered five technical workshops showing participants how to search for African lions in the landscapes together with mapping exactly where they drove.
We also taught participants:
how to identify lions by their whisker spots in high-definition photographs – these are the small spots where a cat’s whiskers originate on their cheeks
how to determine identity in camera trap images of leopard and spotted hyena body flanks
post data collection analysis techniques
a technique to estimate population densities and abundance.
More than 100 Ugandan and international collaborators joined in the “all hands on deck” survey, driving over 26,000km and recording 7,516 camera trap nights from 232 locations spanning a year from January 2022 to January 2023.
Read more: Counting Uganda's lions: we found that wildlife rangers do a better job than machines
Our scientific approach focused on how to achieve the best possible counts of carnivores. In the process we identified some of the biggest shortcomings of previous surveys. These included double counting individual animals and failing to incorporate detection probability. Even worse was simply adding all individual sighted animals and not generating any local-level estimates.
What our results tell us
As expected, our results painted a grim picture in some areas, but marked hope for others.
In the majestic Murchison Falls national park, through which the River Nile runs east-west, we estimated that approximately 240 lions still remained across some 3,200km² of sampled area. This is the highest number in Uganda and at least five to 10 times higher than in the Kidepo and Queen Elizabeth parks.
In Queen Elizabeth national park, home to the tree-climbing lions, we found a marked decline of over 40% (just 39 individuals left in 2,400km²) since our last survey in 2018.
In the country’s north, Kidepo Valley, the best estimate is just 12 individual lions across 1,430km², in stark contrast with the previous estimate of 132 lions implemented nearly 15 years ago.
In contrast, leopards appeared to continue to occur at high densities in select areas, with Lake Mburo and Murchison Falls exhibiting strong populations. Pian Upe and Queen Elizabeth’s Ishasha sector recorded the lowest densities.
Spotted hyenas have proven far more resilient. They occur at densities ranging from 6.15 to 45.31 individuals/100km² across surveyed sites. In Queen Elizabeth, their numbers could be rising as lion populations decline, likely due to reduced competition and ongoing poaching pressure targeting lions.
These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted conservation interventions, particularly for lions in Uganda’s struggling populations.
Value beyond numbers
Our approach shared the load of data collection, and gave people an opportunity and skills to engage in wildlife science. For many emerging conservationists in the country, this was their first chance to be authors on a scientific paper (an increasingly important component of postgraduate degree applications). Even if many of the people we worked with disagree on how to save large carnivores in Uganda, they could at least agree on how many there are as they had a hand in collecting the data and scrutinising it. Since we have embraced a fully science-based approach, we recognise that our surveys too should improve over time.
Aggrey Rwetsiba, senior manager, research and monitoring at Uganda Wildlife Authority, contributed to the research on which this article is based.
Duan Biggs receives funding from Northern Arizona University and is a member of the IUCN (World Conservation Union).
Alexander Richard Braczkowski and Arjun M. Gopalaswamy do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
