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16 May 2025 8:08
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  •   Home > News > International

    Mark Carney declares victory in Canada election, securing fourth term for Liberals

    It's not yet clear if the Liberals will win an outright majority in an election that drew a record number of voters.


    Prime Minister Mark Carney has declared victory in Canada's federal election, securing a 4th term for his Liberal party. 

    In a victory speech, Mr Carney stressed the importance of Canadian unity in the face of threats coming from Washington.

    “As I've been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country," he told cheering supporters at a rally in Ottawa. 

    "These are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. 

    "That will never — that will never, ever happen. But we also must recognise the reality that our world has fundamentally changed.”

    It's not yet clear if the Liberals will win an outright majority in an election that drew a record number of voters.

    Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre conceded defeat to Mr Carney's Liberals and said his party would ensure the government would be held accountable. 

    "Canadians have opted for a razor-thin minority government, a virtual tie in the vote, so I would like to congratulate Prime Minister Carney on leading this minority government," Mr Poilievre said. 

    "We will do our job to hold the government to account … we will always put Canada first.

    "Conservatives will work with the prime minister and all parties with the common goal of defending Canada's interests and getting a new trade deal," he said, "but put this tariff behind us while protecting our sovereignty and the Canadian people."

    Mr Poilievre is facing a battle to retain his seat against the Liberal's Bruce Fanjoy as the polls are still being counted. 

    Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also congratulated Mr Carney for his win. 

    "In a time of global uncertainty, I look forward to continuing to work with you to build on the enduring friendship between our nations, in the shared interests of all our citizens," Mr Albanese posted on X.

    Victory would mark a turnaround for the party, which was polling badly after nearly a decade in power but was fuelled by a wave of patriotism in the wake of US President Donald Trump's threats to Canada's economy and sovereignty.

    The Liberals looked headed for a crushing defeat until Mr Trump's attacks, suggesting Canada should become America's 51st state, and more recently declaring that he might raise a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian-made cars.

    Mr Trump's actions infuriated Canadians and stoked a surge in nationalism that helped the Liberals flip the election narrative to be on course for a fourth-straight term in power.

    Mr Carney also emphasised that his experience handling economic issues made him the best leader to deal with Mr Trump, while Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre tapped into concerns about the cost of living, crime and a housing crisis.

    A record 7.3 million Canadians cast ballots before election day as Mr Trump's truculence infuriated many, leading many to cancel US vacations and refuse to buy American goods.

    "The Americans want to break us so they can own us," Mr Carney said in the run-up to election day.

    "Those aren't just words. That's what's at risk."

    Political scientist Julie Simmons told the ABC that no one would be surprised that the Carney-led Liberals had won the election. 

    Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst from City Index in Brisbane, said uncertainty and minority governments were the two things investors didn't like. 

    "Investors now have both," he said, "With legislation likely harder to pass, it could mean trade negotiations are to be less smooth. And not that they were ever likely to be smooth to begin with.

    "Investors remain in watch-and-see mode, ahead of key US reports this week, though news of the minority government could help USD/CAD gain a bid or two over the near term." 

    How many seats are needed to form a government?

    A party needs 172 seats to form a majority government.

    If no party wins a majority, a party — usually the one with the most seats — can form a minority government but must rely on support from some opposition members.

    So, Liberals might need to rely on the third-place party, the Bloc Québécois, to remain in power and pass legislation, if it doesn't win a majority in parliament.

    The Bloc is a separatist party from the French-speaking province of Quebec that seeks independence from Canada.

    Former prime minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals relied on the New Democrats to remain in power for four years, but the progressive party fared poorly on Monday and its leader, Jagmeet Singh, said he was stepping down after eight years in charge.

    McGill University political science professor Daniel Béland said: "This is a dramatic comeback, but if the Liberals cannot win a majority of seats, political uncertainty in a new minority parliament could complicate things for them."

    Until this year, foreign policy hadn't dominated a Canadian election as much as it did this year since 1988, when free trade with the US was the prevailing issue.

    In addition to the trade war with the US and frosty relationship with Mr Trump, Canada is dealing with a cost-of-living crisis.

    And more than 75 per cent of its exports go to the US, so Mr Trump's tariffs threat and his desire to get North American automakers to move Canada's production south could severely damage the Canadian economy.

    From economist to politician

    Mr Carney built his reputation in the world of global finance, not on the campaign trail.

    Born in Fort Smith and raised in Edmonton, Alberta's capital, Mr Carney left Canada to study economics at Harvard University. He later pursued a master's degree and doctorate in economics from Oxford University.

    His education propelled him into the world of finance, where he spent 13 years at Goldman Sachs, working across firms in London, Tokyo, New York and Toronto.

    In 2003, he made the transition to public service as deputy governor of the Bank of Canada before leaving for a top finance ministry job in 2004.

    Five years later, he returned to lead the central bank as governor in the middle of the global financial crisis, where he solidified his reputation as an economic crisis manager.

    © 2025 ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved

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