The dramatic warning from spy chief Mike Burgess about foreign nations contemplating assassinations on Australian soil has — unsurprisingly — generated plenty of headlines and speculation.
The Director General of Security declared that "at least three" nations are both willing and capable of carrying out hits on critics and dissidents overseas — possibly by hiring criminals to do their dirty work for them.
Mr Burgess declined to name the countries and officials and MPs who have a fair idea of that shortlist are not saying much either but an examination of recent actions by some states offers clues as to who might fit that description.
Iran
If you were going to guess which nation was most likely to be on the director-general's list, Iran is at the top.
Tehran has a long history of clandestine violence and espionage overseas.
Last year multiple Western governments said Iranian intelligence agencies were behind multiple plots to "kill, kidnap, and harass people in Europe and North America".
In August the government kicked out Iran's ambassador after ASIO said it had uncovered evidence that Iran was behind at least two antisemitic attacks in Australia.
Iranian community groups in Australia who are opposed to Tehran have also accused the government of intimidating and monitoring them — while last year the then Home Affairs minister said that ASIO had "disrupted" community surveillance by the Iranian regime.
In other words, there is a clear pattern of behaviour which suggests that Iran could well be one of the countries which are both "willing and capable" of contemplating a plot like this.
Russia
Russia is another country which has form: Vladimir Putin's regime has conducted multiple assassinations of critics, dissidents and political opponents overseas.
Just think of Alexander Litvinenko, who was poisoned with polonium in London in 2006, or the former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal who survived a poisoning with the nerve agent Novichok years later.
Russia is also deeply hostile to Australia, which has been a stalwart supporter of Ukraine in the wake of Putin's invasion and has sent military equipment to Kyiv to help it resist.
The main question is whether Moscow would prioritise any targets in Australia when its security services are already so busy in multiple other countries across the West.
In other words, Russia is certainly "capable." But is it "willing" as well?
Matthew Sussex from the Australian National University says while Russian regime critics in Australia have had to deal with online threats and intimidation, it is difficult to say whether Moscow would want to plough the time and energy into an assassination here.
"Russia certainly has the wherewithal to carry this out, including through proxies," he said.
"But it's not clear if they'd regard Australia as being sufficiently important to make such a demonstration."
India
India might seem like a strange country to include in this list.
Unlike the two countries above, India is not hostile to Australia. Far from it — it is an increasingly vital strategic partner, and the relationship has blossomed over the last two decades.
But India also has form when it comes to targeting separatists overseas — including in Western countries — which could fit Mr Burgess's description of foreign nations trying to hit "dissidents".
Both Canada and the United States have accused India's intelligence services of involvement in plots to kill Sikhs who are part of the Khalistan movement — some of whom the Indian government has labelled as terrorists.
That does not mean India is necessarily one of the three countries identified by Mr Burgess.
For a start, the Khalistan movement in Australia is not nearly as large or as well-organised as it is in Canada or other Western countries, which means Indian agencies would be less likely to target it here.
The fact the US and Canada have publicly pointed the finger at India's intelligence agencies — and pursued its agents through the courts — might also make New Delhi much less likely to cross this particular red line again.
Ian Hall from Griffith University says while the US and Canada cases mean India certainly "isn't out of the frame" when it comes to Mr Burgess's list, he is "not confident" it is one of the three nations.
"My gut feeling is that the warning issued to India (by Western countries) about the alleged assassination was probably heard, and some sort of deterrence was probably established," he said.
"And while India remains concerned about Khalistan activism, it also hasn't been as prominent an issue recently."
China
It is not impossible, but experts say it is unlikely China is one of the three nations on the list.
Beijing presents a formidable intelligence threat to Australia, and it has monitored and intimidated diaspora and dissident groups in Australia — not long ago the police charged a Chinese national with foreign interference, alleging that she was covertly gathering information on a Buddhist group banned in China.
Hong Kong activists and Chinese Communist Party critics in Australia have also been targeted by Beijing, with some saying they have faced an avalanche of threats, particularly at politically sensitive moments.
But while Beijing has often used coercion or kidnapping to get people to return to China, it does not have a track record of conducting targeted assassinations overseas.
That means other countries are more likely to be at the top of the list.
Israel
Israel is also unlikely to be one of the three nations Mr Burgess nominated.
Israel certainly has a long record of targeting its enemies overseas, conducting large numbers of assassinations over multiple decades — including in Western nations.
More recently it has orchestrated operations of sometimes jaw-dropping audacity to kill Hamas and Hezbollah operatives in the region and in Iran.
Australia has been dragged into some of these operations, indirectly — for example in 2010 Australia expelled an Israeli diplomat after it concluded Israel forged four Australian passports in its plot to kill a Hamas operative in Dubai.
But there is zero evidence that Australia is currently harbouring anyone who Israel might view as an enemy who it might want to target.
Mr Burgess's descriptions of foreign governments targeting "dissidents" here also simply doesn't fit the bill with Israel.
Rwanda, Cambodia and North Korea
These three nations might not immediately come to mind when you think about possible political assassinations in Australia, but they should not be dismissed out of hand.
The current governments in both Rwanda and Cambodia have a long track record of intimidating and monitoring critics and political opponents within diaspora communities in Australia.
Several opponents of the current government in Rwanda have also disappeared in mysterious circumstances overseas — although only in African nations.
With both Rwanda and Cambodia, it is probably a question of capability as well as intent: would the governments have the ability to organise a hit on an opponent in a country like Australia?
With North Korea it is probably not a question of capability, but more of intent.
Pyongyang has a long history of targeted assassinations overseas (although not in Western nations) and has been linked to at least six attempted hits in South Korea, China and Malaysia over the last two decades.
But again, there is no evidence that there are any potential targets here in Australia which might draw its attention.
