Ahead of planned nuclear talks between the United States and Iran, looking beyond the diplomacy reveals how the US is positioning itself for potential military escalation.
The US has a vast military footprint in the Middle East, but has been filing more resources into the region in the past month as tensions with Iran continue to simmer.
US fighter jets, warships, and missile defence systems have been positioned around Iran in what analysts say is a readying of arms for a potential strike.
Piecing together data from US officials and satellite imagery paints a picture of the US's growing military presence.
An image of the United States' Al Udeid air base in Qatar on January 25 shows significant aerial assets in position, some of which were not seen in satellite imagery a week prior.
Jennifer Parker, a former director of operations in the US Central Command (CENTCOM), said fighter jets and various other aircraft were among the US's recently deployed assets.
Satellite imagery also shows multi-purpose helicopters and drones at the Dqum Airport in Oman and the Jordanian Muwaffaq Salti air base, which both host US assets.
"It also includes what you would call tanker aircraft … that's significant because those tanker aircraft could be used to refuel bombers, which is the method of attack the US used in June to suppress some of Iran's nuclear facilities," Ms Parker said.
"I think that strikes are likely — this is a significant build up of force, which is very expensive for the US."
Preparing for retaliation
Ms Parker said she had expected the US to strike earlier, but the continued influx of military assets in the past week suggested the US may have required more resources to manage any potential retaliation.
"Perhaps there was a perception in the US that they didn't have the adequate degree of air defence for the scale of response that Iran might provide," Ms Parker said.
But Ms Parker said that shortfall had likely been addressed.
"Those systems are clearly deployed to that region in increased numbers because the US has a view that Iran would retaliate, with any strikes, with missile and drone strikes," she said.
Comparing satellite imagery from January 17 and February 2 shows Patriot missile interceptor systems have been deployed at the US's largest military base in the Middle East, Al Udeid, according to Plabet Labs analysts.
Warships carrying additional aircraft, such as the USS Abraham Lincoln, are also in the region, along with other vessels with anti-missile systems, Ms Parker said.
In another sign of bubbling tensions, US and UK personnel were evacuated from a military base in Qatar in mid-January.
While some have reportedly returned since, Ms Parker said the relationship between the US and Iran had likely reached a point similar to during the 2019-2021 Gulf Crisis, which she said was one of the most intense periods of military tension between the nations.
"It's different in some ways, but I think we are there," Ms Parker said.
Nuclear talks
The looming threat of military action comes as US and Iranian officials are scheduled for talks on Friday.
The round of negotiations between the two countries will be the first since their talks in mid-2025, which were cancelled after Israel launched a surprise aerial assault on Iran, which developed into an intense 12-day war.
Iran retaliated with a wave of ballistic missiles, which overpowered Israel's defence system.
The US bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities during the war, which also prompted retaliatory missile attacks from Iran on the US's Al Udeid air base.
A ceasefire was brokered by the US soon after.
The US had hoped for this week's renewed negotiations to grow beyond the scope of Iran's nuclear program, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
He said the US wanted to discuss Iran's ballistic missiles program, its support of armed proxy groups in the region, and the "treatment of their own people" following mass demonstrations and killings of protesters across the country.
[military bases map]But Iran has been keen to shrink the scope of the discussions to only its nuclear program, which it has long insisted was "peaceful" and not for the development of weapons.
The planned talks almost collapsed amid disputes over the agenda, and last-minute requests from Iran to change the meeting location from Türkiye to Oman, and exclude other states from negotiations.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi ultimately confirmed late on Wednesday that the talks would go ahead, but with no mention of any discussions outside of its nuclear program.
"Nuclear talks with the United States are scheduled to be held in Muscat on about 10 am Friday," Mr Araghchi posted on X.
Ms Parker said it was unlikely Iran would meet demands to demolish its nuclear enrichment program or its ballistic missile capabilities.
"I can't see the Iranian regime agreeing to that because in many ways this is their trump card, their leverage," she said.
Internal strife and external pressure
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency's (HRANA's) latest figure on the number of confirmed civilian deaths in Iran's latest crackdown on protesters has reached more than 6,400.
The number of fatalities under review by HRANA stands at 11,280, and there are unconfirmed reports that the death toll is much higher.
The protests were sparked by the nation's economic crisis, and have grown into a movement calling for an end to Iran's government.
Professor and founding director of the University of St Andrews' Institute of Iranian Studies, Ali Ansari, said the nation was likely to face continued upheaval regardless of the US's actions.
"It's very likely whatever happens, whether the Americans intervene or not, that you're going to find a period in Iran of considerable civil disturbance," he said.
"All they're really looking for at the moment is perhaps Trump giving them some sort of lifeline."
Professor Ansari said Iran had been "increasing the bombast and the rhetoric" in what he believed was likely a show of might against the US.
Iranian politicians were seen chanting "death to America, death to Israel" while wearing military uniforms after the European Union designated Iran's paramilitary, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a "terrorist organisation".
"With one hand they're sort of talking about de-escalation and diplomatic solutions, on the other hand, there's a huge amount of very aggressive rhetoric coming out of Iran," Professor Ansari said.
He also believed a US strike on Iran was likely, but not certain.
"There may also be a situation where the Americans just sit tight and keep the Sword of Damocles over Iran for another couple of months," Professor Ansari said.
"It will be difficult for the Americans to maintain that posture for too long, but at the same time, the Iranian economy is not in great shape either."
He said recent social unrest amid the nation's economic crisis meant the Iranian regime was vulnerable.
"What triggered the protests on December the 28th has not gone away," he said.
"Even if Americans do absolutely nothing, the Islamic Republic of Iran is fast becoming a failed state."
