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5 Mar 2026 21:15
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  •   Home > News > International

    Inside the three-way deal that could see Australians stranded in Gulf get home

    The mammoth task of getting stranded Australians out of the Middle East is part of a fascinating story of backchannel diplomacy between Gulf countries and Iran that has implications for the likely breakout of broader conflict in the region.


    The mammoth task of getting stranded Australians out of the Middle East is part of a fascinating story of backchannel diplomacy between Gulf countries and Iran that has implications for the likely breakout of broader conflict in the region.

    The Australian government is currently establishing various evacuation options for Australian travellers — and expats — who want to leave the Gulf, though at present commercial flights are the best option.

    In the UAE, for example, that is partly because air strikes on the Al Dhafra military air base constrain the RAAF from operating there.

    While land transport options are being developed, congested border crossings with Oman — and the limited capacity of its main airport at Muscat — mean these alternatives are not viable for large numbers of travellers at this point.

    For now, the commercial flight options are extremely limited to Australia, with just two flights to date — one Emirates flight early on Wednesday morning, and one Etihad flight expected to leave from Abu Dhabi early on Thursday.

    Foreign Minister Penny Wong has made reference to 115,000 Australians located in the Gulf region. But that is understood to include expatriates. The number of travellers — particularly those in transit — is believed to be much smaller.

    That doesn't make things any better for miserable travellers stuck in limbo in hotels in the region awaiting flights. But it gives a better idea of the task immediately facing the Australian government in trying to move people.

    So far, in the UAE at least, very few of the hundreds, even thousands, of missiles and drones that have been directed at the Gulf state by Iran have actually penetrated the sophisticated air-defence system.

    The concern at the back of the minds of the government is what happens if the UAE — or other Gulf states — start to run out of these expensive air defences.

    The spectre of major missile attacks hitting civilian targets could significantly change the view of thousands of expats who, for now, are more than happy to stay put in the region.

    That is part of the reason why six crisis groups have been deployed to help if much bigger levels of evacuations are required.

    The fact that any flights have recommenced is the result of negotiations between Gulf states and Iran, the ABC has learnt.

    On Tuesday evening, local time, the UAE announced a "safe corridor" had been established that would allow about 48 flights an hour to leave.

    The UAE's Minister of Economy and Tourism Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri said his country had worked with other Gulf nations on the plan.

    "The capacity as of today, based on the emergency routes available, is 48 flights per hour with a possibility of increasing this figure at a later stage, according to the latest development and security ratings and measures," he said.

    This arrangement had seen a total of 17,498 passengers travelling on 60 flights between March 1 and March 3 with more flights scheduled.

    [datawrapper map]

    The deal to get people flying again

    Opening UAE airspace, according to multiple sources, has been a result of backchannel diplomacy with Iran facilitated by Oman and Qatar.

    It is understood that, prior to Israel and the United States launching their attacks on Iran, the UAE made commitments to Iran that it would not permit its territory, land or airspace to be used for hostile or "direct offensive" operations against Iran by the US or Israel.

    The Al Dhafra base was not used in the February 28 strikes against Iran. This is why the UAE, along with other Gulf states, have been so shocked at the attacks on civilian sites and infrastructure by Iran.

    A three-way deal was struck involving the aviation authorities of the UAE, Oman and Iran that allowed the limited reopening of a specific flight corridor away from Iran and the northern Persian Gulf, with an agreement from Iran that it would not target or "lock on" commercial aircraft and risk them being shot down.

    The deal is understood to have been negotiated specifically to clear the backlogs of stranded passengers. It is not clear how long it will last.

    It is based primarily on "special" flights, rather than the normal operation of scheduled flights, which is one reason why there are confusing messages about flights being suspended, even as some other flights depart.

    During the negotiations, Iran indicated that it had undertaken what it had considered a "retaliatory" wave of air strikes, including the one that saw some damage to Dubai International Airport, but that the first wave of these strikes had ended.

    These negotiations all point to the vested interests that remain for Gulf States to not become directly involved in hostilities with Iran.

    States like the UAE — which have built much of its economy on its status as a safe haven in the Middle East — has much to lose from becoming embroiled in direct hostilities.

    And it has everything to gain if it can restore at least some of its air services to try to maintain some confidence in its long-term future as a vital air transport hub.

    Laura Tingle is the ABC's global affairs editor.

    Are you impacted by the war in the Middle East?

    ABC




    © 2026 ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved

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