Yes, One Nation’s poll numbers are climbing. But major party status – let alone government – is still a long way off

Recent polling has delivered a spike for the anti-immigration party One Nation, triggering media speculation that Australian politics is on the cusp of a populist realignment.

The latest Newspoll had Labor on 33%, One Nation on 27% and the Coalition on just 18% of primary votes, which constituted both an historic high for One Nation and an all-time low for the Coalition.

Headlines tell us Pauline Hanson’s party is “soaring”, with some analysts asking if she could lead the country or emerge as opposition leader amid a populist uprising.

Yet, the evidence for either of those happening is thin. For a start, it relies on mid-term polling following a landslide victory for Labor in the 2025 election – in other words, is shows one in four Australians would currently vote for One Nation.

A 27% primary vote is certainly a notable boost for Hanson’s party. But framing it as a pathway to One Nation leadership misreads what is fundamentally a Coalition-induced problem. Here are several reasons why One Nation’s support is likely to hit a ceiling.

Historically, One Nation’s limited electoral success has been mostly in Queensland (22.7% first preference in the 1998 state election) and upper houses, where it currently holds four Senate seats out of 76.

Even then, the two One Nation senators contesting the 2025 election were well below quota on primary votes and relied heavily on Coalition preference flows to leapfrog rivals in the WA and NSW count. It was as much about a Coalition preference deal as a One Nation success story.

Australian prime ministers emerge from the lower house (the brief exception was John Gorton), where One Nation has virtually no presence beyond the defection of former National party leader, Barnaby Joyce. Turning a poll spike into a One Nation government would require Hanson (or Joyce) to contest a lower house seat, sustained national support across diverse issues, and a leap from niche anti-immigration messaging to broad policy appeal.

Mid-term polls, especially those not counting undecided voters, often reflect protest sentiment rather than durable electoral momentum. Excluding undecided voters fails to show the degree of voter volatility, especially this far out from a full-term election due in 2028.

Labor’s primary vote has also softened, taking on heavy criticism for its response to the Bondi massacre, and with interest rates rising again and renewed mortgage pain, it too is not immune to a mid-poll protest vote.

Governments (and opposition parties) can suffer mid-term slumps without translating into election losses. Only a year ago, polling pointed to a one-term Labor government and a Coalition victory. Five months later, Labor secured an unprecedented 94-seat win and Liberal leader Peter Dutton lost his own seat.

As former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson, once quipped: “A week can be a long time in politics”, so too with early polling and the final ballot.

One Nation’s recent boost is framed as a rise in right-wing populism tapping into a wave of global anti-immigration sentiment.

But there’s no denying voter frustration with Liberal–National infighting. Sussan Ley’s weakened leadership, with Angus Taylor openly canvassing for her job, has created openings for protest from disaffected Coalition supporters. A quarter of voters at the last election had already moved away from the major parties leading to the rising tide of the independents, particularly the teals, at the expense of former (moderate) liberal heartland seats like Kooyong in Victoria.

Twice in nine months, the Coalition partnership has imploded. It has been patched back together again now, but few see this as a solid arrangement, and most expect an imminent leadership spill in the Liberal Party.

While dismayed National voters could switch to One Nation and follow Joyce, it would put a handful of National seats in play at best. This is especially so given the Queensland version of the party, the Liberal National Party, remains a united single entity against the federal Labor government.

Further, the likelihood of moderate Liberals agreeing to a One Nation–Liberal Coalition replacing the Nationals, is fanciful. Liberal member for Flinders Zoe McKenzie dismissed this notion last week.

Geography and candidate quality further limit Hanson’s prospects. Australia’s population is concentrated on the east coast, where One Nation’s support is uneven, and weak in major cities. Some commentators suggest current polling and high profile recruits such as Cory Bernardi could see upcoming state elections produce lower house One Nation representatives. Even so, state voting patterns are not good predictors of federal election outcomes. Queensland is a good example of that.

One Nation has long struggled to recruit candidates capable of surviving media scrutiny and upholding parliamentary responsibilities. Since the party’s inception until 2023, out of 36 One Nation representatives at state and federal level, only seven have lasted long enough to face re-election. The party’s history of candidate controversies – think of Hanson’s falling-outs with Mark Latham, Fraser Anning and David Oldfield – have been a drag on the party.

Structural factors reinforce these limits. Preferential and compulsory voting systems favour parties with broad public appeal, making it hard for niche-issue parties like One Nation to translate short-term polling attention into seats.

Hanson’s decades-long focus on immigration, cultural threat, and elite betrayal grabs media attention. She is a shrewd political communicator whose polling narratives and immigration rhetoric reinforce one another, driving visibility and public engagement. For example, a Sky News clip of Hanson headlined “Polling higher than the Liberals” currently has 272,000 views. Another segment on immigration, framed around claims that migrants “don’t want to assimilate”, has drawn 180,000 views.

Yet, the party’s message amplification should not be confused with persuasion. These are the same anti-migration themes Hanson has promoted since the 1990s, with limited success in expanding her electoral base. They ignore immigrants’ vital roles in Australia’s health and regional workforces, and in Australian society more generally.

While anti-immigrant sentiment has risen in the wake of the horrific Bondi terror attack, issue salience fluctuates. The most important issues closer to polling day are typically broader, such as cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability, health and aged care. And the next election is still two years away.

For now, the polls tell us more about voter frustration, volatility and media incentives than about who will govern Australia in 2028.

Andrea Carson receives funding with colleagues from the Australian Research Council to study political trust.

Finley Watson receives funding through an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.