Vladimir Putin recruited upwards of 180,000 criminals to fight his war on Ukraine — now they're coming home.
Multiple anonymous sources inside the Kremlin have revealed the Russian leader is preparing for the unpleasant return of his convict army, according to Reuters.
Murderers, rapists and other hardened criminals were initially offered a pardon after six months of service on the front line.
Recruitment began in mid-2022.
By 2023, the defence ministry had changed the rules to make prisoners keep fighting until the war was over.
Now, sources tell Reuters Mr Putin believes the army's return all at once brings with it the risk of destabilising Russian society.
It's something he wants carefully managed, the same Kremlin insiders say.
The crimes committed by paroled convict-soldiers are already having "severe effects at home", according to Russian security affairs expert Mark Galeotti.
In a report on Moscow's demobilisation woes, Mr Galeotti says Russia must prepare for "the release back into society of often very damaged and dangerous individuals".
"Indeed, Moscow's decision to enlist convicted gangsters, murderers, rapists and similar serious criminals on a mass scale … will ensure that the impact at home will be unusually disruptive."
242 killed by returning soldiers
The six-month battlefield stint didn't diminish Azamat Iskaliyev's appetite for violent revenge against women.
The 37-year-old was sentenced to nine-years in jail after he killed his wife by stabbing her in his car in the summer of 2021 because she wanted a divorce.
After serving less than a third of that sentence he was freed and pardoned by Russia in return for fighting in Ukraine.
Soon after returning to civilian life, he knifed an ex-girlfriend more than 60 times in the shop where she worked in October 2024 after she rejected his advances.
For that crime, he was jailed for more than 19 years, according to court records in the city of Saratov.
This case is one shocking example of the social problems that could await Russia as thousands of prisoners turned soldiers return home following an eventual end to the war.
Verstka, an independent Russian media outlet, reported that by October 2024 almost 500 civilians had become victims of soldiers returning from fighting in Ukraine.
The report said at least 242 people had been killed, and a further 227 were gravely injured, citing data from Russian court records.
Ex-convicts committed these crimes more frequently than other military personnel, and women were disproportionately affected, Verstka reported.
Russian authorities designated Verstka, whose publisher is based in Prague, a foreign agent in December 2023.
Fight for your freedom
Russia had recruited between 140,000 to 180,000 prisoners to fight in the war against Ukraine as of November 2024, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) said in January.
Data on the prisoner recruits has not been available since. Mr Putin has said almost 700,000 troops are still fighting in Ukraine.
Moscow first recruited prisoners under the auspices of the Wagner mercenary company and then directly under the Russian Defense Ministry.
The initial deal proposed was simple — survive six months fighting on the front line and receive a pardon.
After a change of mind, Russia made the rule that convicts can be released with conditional parole, meaning if they re-offend they would then have to complete their previous sentence.
Generally, the prisoner soldiers are released from combat because of serious injury, conspicuous bravery or, on occasion, bribery, Mr Galeotti said.
Other convicts who are still fighting on the front line will return to society if and when the war ends.
Kremlin aware of potential problems
One of the sources close to the Kremlin said the government feared the impact a mass veteran return could have on the tightly controlled political system.
The third source said at Mr Putin's behest, the Kremlin is working to manage potential problems with a slew of policies, programmes and appointments.
Filip Slaveski is a senior lecturer in Russian/Soviet History at the Australian National University and focuses on mass conflict and its aftermath.
He thinks convicts returning to society from war "can be a problem" for Russia, but says it is likely a minor concern for Putin's government.
"I don't think that it's a major consideration for the Russian government, I don't think they're particularly concerned about that," Dr Slaveski said.
The Russian president places a high value on his army and soldiers.
In February 2024 he said "those who serve Russia, hard workers and soldiers, reliable, trustworthy people who have proven their loyalty to Russia by deeds" and added his soldiers are part of the "genuine elite".
He has taken a personal interest in an elite training programme called The Time of Heroes to prepare them for civilian leadership.
In a Kremlin meeting in June, Mr Putin explained the rationale — which he described as his "deep belief" — behind this plan.
"The people who made the conscious decision to serve the Motherland, and thereby achieve personal success, should gradually occupy certain positions," he said.
Not just a Russian problem
Dr Slaveski says "deep social problems exist already" in Russia and returning soldiers could add to those.
"It's not as if exposure to military realities or traumas are the sort of prerequisite for causing significant social strife upon their return," he said.
"But they can certainly be exacerbated by people who have been exposed to incredibly violent traumas and returning [to society]."
There is history of this happening in Russia too.
The end of the Afghan war in 1989 coincided with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the return of soldiers suffering from post-war issues created a power and security crisis.
Dr Slaveski said the political system and law enforcement are stronger in Russia today, meaning it is better suited to dealing with the return of afflicted soldiers.
He also noted both sides of the war have done similar convict recruiting, saying, "I don't just think this is specifically a Russian problem".
"The recruitment of prisoners to serving is a widespread thing, and has been adopted by Ukrainians with certain providers at the time," Dr Slaveski said.
In Ukraine though, convicts serving smaller sentences for lesser crimes were recruited, rather than a free-for-all like in Russia.
His great concerns for the return of soldiers and the end of the war, both in Russia and in Ukraine, is the long-term affects it will have on society.
"What are the long-term implications for people, not only soldiers, the civilians in these positions who are subject to bombings and such trauma," he said.
"What impact does all that have on basic social interaction?"
ABC/Reuters
