Billionaire Elon Musk has announced plans to dive back into politics, following his public falling-out with US President Donald Trump.
He says he's forming his own political party — which he's called the America Party.
Here's what to know about its chance of success.
The new party on the scene
Mr Musk took to X — the social media platform he owns — to ask his followers if he should form his own party.
More than 1.2 million X users voted and 65 per cent of them backed his plan for a new party.
On Saturday, he announced the formation of the America Party on X:
"… you want a new political party and you shall have it!
"When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy.
"Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom."
This follows previous foreshadowing that he would work to unseat members of Congress who supported Mr Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
The billionaire spent part of Sunday taking feedback from X users about the America Party, which he indicated he'd use to get involved in the 2026 midterm elections.
What parties are there in US?
There are two major political parties in the US: the Democrats and the Republicans.
Mr Trump is part of the Republican Party, which also currently has the majority in the House of Representatives and Senate.
Several minor parties (often called third parties in the US) exist, but they are just a fraction as popular as the two majors and often aren't talked about as a result.
In last year's presidential election, for example, the Democrats and Republicans each recorded more than 75 million votes in their favour nationwide.
Meanwhile, minor parties and independents drew just 2,878,359 combined.
In modern times, the most popular minor parties include the Libertarian Party and the Green Party.
Minor parties struggle to break through
New political parties are often formed in the US but typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties.
It's a barrier Mr Trump was quick to point out when he heard the news.
"[Mr Musk] even wants to start a Third Political Party, despite the fact that they have never succeeded in the United States — The System is not designed for them," the president wrote in a post on Truth Social on Sunday.
While a handful of Congress members have been elected as independents, minor parties have recorded little success in recent history.
Joe Lieberman was re-elected to the Senate on the Connecticut for Lieberman ticket in 2006 after losing the Democratic Party nomination.
Dean Barkley briefly served as a senator for Minnesota from 2002 to 2003 as a member of the Independence Party of Minnesota
You'd need to trace back to 1970 for the next successful third-party candidate.
Why aren't minor parties more popular?
US elections tend to discourage voters from supporting minor parties.
That's because most operate on a first-past-the-post system, rather than preferential.
This is where constituents can only choose one candidate to cast a vote for, rather than ordering by first to last choice.
While preferential systems ensure the voices of minor party voters are still heard if their first choice doesn't pull enough votes, first-past-the-post votes do not.
As a result, voters feel pressured to choose between one of the two candidates most likely to win so they can make sure their vote helps determine the winner.
The spoiler effect
Even though the America Party will likely struggle to win seats, it could still have a big influence on election results because of something known as the spoiler effect.
This refers to when a losing candidate effectively splits the votes on one side of the political spectrum, paving the way for less popular candidates to win.
The phenomenon has been noted several times in the country's electoral history.
Democrats have pointed the finger at Green Party candidate Ralph Nader for their loss in the 2000 presidential election, for example.
While their candidate, Al Gore, won the popular vote, he lost the Electoral College — and therefore, the presidency — due to a razor-thin margin of 537 votes in Florida.
Mr Nader had drawn a total of 97,488 votes in the state, which Democrats argue would have otherwise gone to Mr Gore and cinched the election.
[LINK: Florida results]Republicans might have said the same of Robert F Kennedy Jr, had he stayed in the race during the 2024 presidential election campaign.
Before he dropped out, polling suggested Mr Kennedy had attracted about 5 per cent of voters.
Both Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Mr Trump enjoyed a polling boost when Mr Kennedy withdrew, but the Republican candidate claimed the larger share of projected votes (+1.1 points).
[LINK: 2024 presidential campaign graph]Mr Trump ultimately won the popular vote by 1.5 per cent.
While at this stage, Mr Musk has indicated he plans to focus on the 2026 midterms rather than a presidential campaign, these examples can be considered a rough blueprint for what effect his party might have in elections.
Due to his conservative politics, the America Party could draw votes away from the Republican Party and benefit Democrats.
Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver says only modest success for the America Party would be enough to spell trouble for Republicans.
"In 2024, four U.S. Senate races and 11 U.S. House seats were decided by two percentage points or less," he wrote on his blog, the Silver Bulletin.
"So an America Party that got just 2 per cent of the vote in competitive districts, mostly coming from Republicans, might qualify as an embarrassment for Elon, but could nevertheless hurt the GOP in what is already likely to be a difficult midterm for the party."
A survey of 1,000 registered voters conducted by Quantus Insights found 40 per cent would consider backing Mr Musk's party over Republican or Democratic candidates.
That sentiment was highest among male Republican respondents, 57 per cent of whom indicated they would be at least somewhat likely to vote for the party.
The X factor?
If there's one thing that sets Mr Musk aside from others who have tried to forge their own path, it's his immense wealth.
He could have a better chance at impacting next year's midterm elections if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money.
Mr Musk is estimated to have tipped at least $250 million into Mr Trump's 2024 election campaign — something he has suggested sealed the win.
"Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate," Mr Musk wrote in June.
Cash splashes haven't proven to be a silver bullet for winning elections, though.
Following the success of Mr Trump's presidential campaign, Mr Musk attempted to influence the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election, backing Waukesha County circuit judge Brad Schimel as the "Republican" candidate in the nonpartisan race.
Using similar tactics as he had for Mr Trump, the billionaire offered financial compensation to voters who signed a petition opposing "activist judges".
With estimated spending of more than $25 million on advertising, Mr Musk became the largest single contributor in any judicial election in US history.
But Dane County circuit judge Susan Crawford — who faced scrutiny for her own billionaire backers — ultimately came out on top with 55.02 per cent of the vote.
Could Musk run for president in 2028?
No.
To be eligible to run for the office of president, the US Constitution stipulates a candidate must be a "natural born citizen".
That's usually interpreted to mean someone who was born in the US or born abroad to US citizen parents.
Either way, they need to have been a US citizen at birth.
This clause clearly rules Mr Musk, who was born in South Africa, out.
His mother, Maye, is a Canadian model, while his father, Errol, is a South African businessman and politician. Neither were US citizens when he was born.
A biography by Walter Isaacson and a profile by Esquire both say Mr Musk obtained his citizenship in 2002.
ABC/AP
