Just three weeks ago, you could have been forgiven for thinking Labour was on track to lose the UK's general election if you'd seen this opinion poll.
When asked by YouGov how well Sir Keir Starmer was doing as opposition leader, 46 per cent of respondents said "badly" and 36 per cent said "well", while 18 per cent said they "don't know".
Forty-one per cent also described Labour as "incompetent", 47 per cent said the party was "untrustworthy", and 42 per cent said it "was not ready" to govern.
So how has someone so apparently unpopular, leading a party so apparently unelectable, become the UK's next prime minister?
Going back to the day it was called offers some clues.
On May 22, then-prime minister Rishi Sunak stood out the front of 10 Downing Street — his official residence — after 4pm to announce what commentators, politicians and journalists had been gossiping about for hours.
As he declared the country would head to the polls in six weeks' time and railed about how the opposition had no plan, it started raining.
Sunak — from the Conservative Party — got soaked. The British press had a field day.
Gideon Rachman, the Financial Times' long-time chief foreign affairs commentator, quipped on the social media platform X that the PM could hardly criticise others for a lack of vision if he "can't organise an umbrella for himself".
Salma Shah, a former UK advisor for the Conservatives, told Channel 5 the "optics of the announcement were terrible".
"I don't have a lot of sympathy for him [Sunak], because he has a whole team of people who are supposed to think about this stuff," she said.
"I used to think about this stuff."
Political commentator and broadcaster Matt Stadlen — who has often criticised the Conservatives — agreed, pointing out Sunak was literally "Labour's attack ads for them".
"All they have to do now is just put a picture up of Rishi Sunak looking utterly miserable, drenched," he said.
Shortly after Sunak spoke, Sir Keir got up at a hotel in London and made a brief statement to reporters in which he said it was "time for change" and that "together we can stop the chaos".
He also remained dry.
And there, in the space of an hour, the tone for the campaign was set.
For Labour and Sir Keir, doing the bare minimum was enough against a government that had been kicking own goals for several years.
Sir Keir became opposition leader in April 2020. In the years that followed, the Conservative Party — known colloquially as the Tories — churned through three prime ministers.
Things like the so-called Partygate scandal — in which Conservative MPs and staffers were sprung having illegal gatherings while the UK was under COVID social-distancing restrictions — as well as former PM Liz Truss's "mini budget" that spooked markets, put the Conservatives out of favour with voters.
During this period, Sir Keir sat back. It's something that drew criticisms from sections of the media, the government and even some within his own party.
Sophie Stowers, a politics researcher for the not-for-profit think tank UK in a Changing Europe, said Labour and Sir Keir had been "incredibly cautious" during the campaign, and the years leading up to it.
"I also think it's an acknowledgement that they will be coming to power … at a time when the economy is stagnant, there's not much growth. And the interest rates on those debt repayments are through the roof," she said.
"It's a very difficult climate to try and introduce any real long-lasting policy change.
"You can also see that in the fact that they're saying, we want to introduce all these changes, but if you want us to do that, realistically, it's going to take us 10 years, so you're going to have to elect us twice."
Labour had been ahead in the polls for more than two years before Thursday's election.
However, it hasn't always been like that.
When Sir Keir took over as opposition leader, most polls had the government enjoying a double-digit lead over Labour.
At that time, he had only been an MP for five years.
In Sir Keir's biography, published this year, Chris Ward, a former advisor to him, said: "One of Keir's greatest strengths is that he's never been from or beholden to a particular faction of the Labour party."
"I think that's because — unlike almost every previous Labour leader — he didn't spend his life in the Labour Party and it isn't his whole life, even now."
Having said that, he was born in London to a Labour-voting family and joined the party's youth wing as a 16-year-old.
He got a law degree from the University of Leeds and did postgraduate study at Oxford, graduating in 1986.
From there he embarked on a glittering legal career, specialising in human rights, and eventually rose to become director of public prosecutions from 2008-2013.
It was his achievements in that role that saw him knighted in 2014.
Over the course of the campaign, Sir Keir has gone to great lengths to protect his family from the spotlight.
Earlier this week, he told Virgin Radio he would attempt to clock off at 6pm on Fridays to spend time with his children, something that sparked ridicule from the Tories, who said he'd be a "part-time PM".
While many will sympathise with the Labour leader's stance, Sunak didn't miss his chance, and told journalists: "I haven't finished at six ever."
Starmer is known as a political centrist, and that was reflected in the uncontroversial policy platform he took to the election, promising to do things like grow the economy, revitalise the public health system, cut crime and champion the country's climate credentials.
Sir Keir styled himself as a working-class Labour leader, and has often pointed out his parents had blue-collar jobs.
When he mentioned it again last month during a televised debate, it elicited groans and laughter from the studio audience — something that clearly hit a nerve.
"We couldn't make ends meet, which actually isn't a laughing matter … we couldn't pay our bills," he said.
During the same debate, Sunak was asked if he'd ever had to go without something: a pertinent question given the UK is in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis.
He told viewers there were "all sorts of things" he wanted as a child but couldn't have, like pay TV.
The response sparked ridicule. While Sunak did not grow up as part of British elite, he and his wife now have a fortune of well over $1 billion, placing them firmly among the country's richest citizens.
While both men were laughed at, Sir Keir's answer did not become a national news story.
The exchange reflected the mood of the British electorate.
"Keir Starmer was the least unpopular, if you can spin it like that," Ms Stowers said.
"He wasn't exactly speaking people off their feet as a potential prime minister.
"I think the reason that Labour was doing so well [in polling] in spite of that, is just because of how unpopular the Conservatives are."
Another general election is not scheduled in the UK until 2029.
