Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Te Kunenga ki Purehuroa – Massey University
Following a brief dip during the COVID pandemic, aviation is back in a growth phase.
Globally, passenger traffic is projected to grow by 3.8% annually over the next 20 years. In New Zealand, this optimism is reflected in Jetstar’s expansion plans for its domestic and trans-Tasman services and Auckland Airport’s airfield extension.
The government has welcomed the trend and sees the aviation and tourism industries as key drivers of economic growth.
But climate impacts of flying are rarely mentioned, even though the government is currently considering whether or not to include emissions from international aviation and shipping in New Zealand’s net zero 2050 target, as recommended by the Climate Change Commission.
Emissions from New Zealand’s international aviation and shipping are equivalent to about 9% of the country’s net domestic emissions. Without action to reduce emissions from these sectors, they could grow to a third of domestic net emissions by 2050, according to the commission.
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts is expected to announce a decision next month.
New Zealand’s action plan for aviation
In September, the newly established Interim Aviation Council released an aviation action plan. It covers regulation, innovation, economic growth and emissions.
The plan’s ambition is that New Zealand will be:
reducing the use of fossil fuels and transitioning to clean energy, in line with New Zealand’s target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
In a new report, we have analysed the plan in the context of New Zealand’s international commitments.
First, let’s backtrack to 2021 and New Zealand’s first emissions reduction plan. That also included work to decarbonise aviation by setting specific targets, implementing a sustainable aviation fuel mandate and establishing a public-private leadership body.
That body, Sustainable Aviation Aotearoa (SAA), was set up in 2022. But there is no word yet on the targets or mandate. The SAA has never published any minutes, work plans, calls for evidence or advice.
Its initial balance of public and private membership became skewed in favour of industry, with more airlines and oil companies (Airbus, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, British Petroleum, Z Energy, and Channel Infrastructure) joining the group than organisations representing the environment.
Of 49 members, only three (one from the Climate Change Commission and two from the Ministry for the Environment) have an environmental focus.
New Zealand’s second emissions reduction plan, published last year, mentions aviation emissions only briefly, commenting that:
the government’s role is to facilitate industry discussions through existing forums, consider regulatory barriers and ensure New Zealand’s interests are represented on the international stage.
That statement is incorrect. The government’s role, as specified in the Climate Change Response Act, is to prepare sector-specific policies to reduce emissions. But the Climate Change Commission has reviewed these policies and found them to be inadequate – it found virtually all policy-driven goals to cut emissions were at risk of not being achieved.
Global goal for net-zero flying
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has a goal of net-zero international aviation emissions by 2050. A key task for New Zealand, one of 193 member nations, is to determine how we should implement this.
International aviation is currently a large, unregulated source of emissions. In 2024, just the first outgoing legs of flights from New Zealand emitted 3.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, equivalent to 12% of all domestic emissions from fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) combined.
States have committed to mapping out plans to cut aviation emissions and submit them to ICAO. New Zealand’s plan was already overdue in 2022. Although it appears the SAA has done some work on this, no plan has been submitted yet.
Plans from other countries, including the United Kingdom, give some idea of the challenge. They describe a mixture of low-carbon fuels, efficiency gains and offsetting – but add these won’t get us all the way.
Additional measures such as carbon removal and demand management will be required. The UK’s sustainable aviation fuel mandate began this year and will strengthen every year, with airlines facing penalties of about NZ$11 per litre for missing targets.
As the UK’s action plan notes:
Most options for aviation decarbonisation rely on new technology, the development and uptake of which is extremely uncertain, owing to the uncertain nature of technology readiness and cost of technology over time.
This is not the government’s task alone
Aviation is part of a wider system. Passengers, tourism operators, airports, airlines, fuel companies and the government all share responsibility for the sector’s requirement to cut emissions.
Failure to deliver can lead to a loss of trust and impede progress. The tourism industry is crucial for New Zealand, and it is notable that the Tourism Industry Association supports the entry of international aviation into emission targets.
It appears Sustainable Aviation Aotearoa has not achieved its core purpose to “provide advice and coordination to accelerate the decarbonisation” of New Zealand’s aviation sector.
The Interim Aviation Council may be heading the same way. It has no environmental representation and assigns no actions to the Ministry for the Environment. Nor does it mention the regulation of emissions, which is the only way to simultaneously achieve environmental goals and lower uncertainty for investors.
As the permanent council is formed, it should operate openly and balance state, industry and public interests.
The author acknowledges the contribution by Paul Callister.
Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
