The US operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has left the country with an uncertain future, sparked concern among regional neighbours, and could embolden other global powers in territorial disputes, experts say.
Mr Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were seized by US military forces during a raid under nightfall of their home in the capital Caracas on Saturday. They were flown out of the country and transported to New York to face a criminal trial.
The capture came after months of escalating tensions between the US and the South American nation, which President Donald Trump accuses of operating as a "narco-terrorist" regime under a corrupt and illegitimate dictatorship.
In court on Monday, Mr Maduro pleaded not guilty to the charges against him and said: "I am a decent man, the president of my country."
While Mr Trump initially said the US would temporarily "run" Venezuela, his administration has since insisted it expects the politicians who have assumed power in Mr Maduro's place to comply with demands about how the country should operate.
Delcy Rodríguez, Mr Maduro's vice-president, was formally sworn into power as the country's interim president on Monday, local time.
What happens next remains unclear. These are some of the likely scenarios that could unfold, according to Latin American and political analysts.
Maduro's regime remains 'steady'
Latrobe University Associate Dean Raul Sanchez-Urribarri, who grew up in Venezuela and has family who live there, says the Venezuelan government continues to operate "as normal as it can in those circumstances".
Before he was forcibly removed, Mr Maduro led an authoritarian government underpinned by the "Chavismo" political ideology that focuses mostly on state control of national assets, and is associated with former military lieutenant colonel and socialist president Hugo Chavez.
The country's high court ordered on Saturday that Ms Rodríguez assume power, supported by senior officials, including Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello.
On the same day, the Venezuelan military announced it would support Ms Rodríguez.
The Trump administration is demanding Ms Rodriguez comply with its demands to restrict the flow of drugs, remove foreign operatives from Iran, Cuba and nations or networks hostile to the US from the country, and to stop the sale of oil to Washington's adversaries, Politico reported.
Ms Rodríguez held a number of positions under Mr Chavez's government, but gained prominence working under Mr Maduro to the point of being seen as his successor.
Dr Sanchez-Urribarri said Ms Rodríguez has become known for her close ties to "business elites" in Caracas, who see her as "an articulate, efficient operator" and are likely to continue to support her.
"That, of course, in conditions like this can be actually quite persuasive … The Chavista team needs to continue to be seen as an anti-imperialist regime that is close to its values," he told the ABC.
"In Venezuela, that doesn't really buy you that much, but it buys you the loyalty of those who've been with you for years.
"It doesn't bode well for the Delcy government to be seen as someone who sold out to Americans."
Election unlikely to be held soon
Venezuela's constitution requires an election to be held within 30 days whenever a president becomes "permanently unavailable" due to incidents such as death, resignation, removal from office or "abandonment" of duties.
That timeline was rigorously followed when Mr Chavez died suddenly of cancer in 2013, and Mr Maduro was elected as his successor.
In its decision to install Ms Rodríguez as leader, the high court cited another constitutional provision that declared Mr Maduro's absence "temporary". It means Ms Rodríguez can withhold power without an election for up to six months.
UNSW Latin America expert Anthea McCarthy-Jones said Mr Maduro's removal further divided Venezuelans and caused uncertainty around whether the country would undergo a democratic transition.
"There's a lot of trepidation [and] uncertainty about what this all means … I don't think that Delcy Rodríguez is keen to hold an election. I don't think that's her priority at this time," she told the ABC.
"It is concerning that now there's an opportunity to set up a plan for a democratic transition to support, in a timely fashion, free and fair elections, and yet no parties inside Venezuela who are in power at the moment, or members of the US administration, seem to prioritise that at all.
"That would be a very profoundly confusing, concerning and upsetting situation for Venezuelans in Venezuela."
Dr Sanchez-Urribarri also said while Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado "is still the most respected and biggest leader of the opposition in the country", there appears to be a hesitancy among influential business elites to shift their support away from Ms Rodríguez.
Ms Machado was banned from participating in presidential elections by the Maduro regime before she chose former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia to run against him in her place. The Venezuelan opposition claims he defeated Mr Maduro at the 2024 election with an overwhelming majority.
"Given the circumstances, they said to themselves: 'Supporting Corina Machado or Edmundo González is too risky … better to go with the devil we know, especially when the devil is already showing that they can accomplish what they want them to accomplish and that they can cooperate," Dr Sanchez-Urribarri said.
"I think [Ms Machado's] going to play the longer game. One scenario that could happen is that as time passes by, the authoritarian regime in Venezuela runs into trouble, [and] will need elections at some point."
Venezuela is a 'powder keg' of armed groups
As recent tensions between the US and Venezuela escalated, Mr Maduro announced the mobilisation of more than 200,000 national military members and encouraged the country's civilian army — the Bolivarian Militia — to take up arms in the event of any foreign attack.
That militia was created by Mr Chavez during his presidency and forms a paramilitary, civilian arm of the national armed forces, comprised of millions of Venezuelans.
Dr McCarthy-Jones said Venezuela's decentralised arming of various groups in past decades, such as the national military, police, national guard, criminal gangs and the civilian militia, now poses a risk of violence after the US intervention.
"Domestically, I would categorise Venezuela as a potential powder keg," she said.
"You've got a lot of different heavily armed groups with vested interests that might not want to play the game the United States wants.
"If you put all of this together, it really seems like a situation that could easily spin out of control in the future if things aren't managed correctly."
The diaspora may not return home
Since 2014, almost 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country, in one of the largest Latin American exoduses in recent memory, according to the United Nations refugee agency.
Groups such as the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and Human Rights Watch say during that time, Mr Maduro facilitated crimes against humanity in Venezuela, including the kidnapping, torture and murder of civilians.
Dr McCarthy-Jones said she does not expect Venezuelans who now live abroad to return home because "they wouldn't be returning to a country that is functioning".
"We've still got a country that has major problems in relation to development, poverty, basic food shortages continue. It's not a place that you would return to and start living a happy life again immediately," she said.
Dr Sanchez-Urribarri agreed, saying that while many Venezuelans would continue to flee, there might also be others who chose to stay in the hope that US intervention might spark a social reconstruction of the quality of life in the country.
US operation could 'embolden Russia, China'
Strategic Analysis Australia founder and international relations analyst Michael Shoebridge said Mr Trump's removal of Mr Maduro could have global implications.
"Trump really has put meat on the bones of the words in his national security strategy, which said America was going to dominate the Western Hemisphere, and encouraged other major powers to exert more power in their own near neighbourhoods," he told the ABC.
"Doing a military raid like this to abduct a foreign leader clearly breaks international law and it sets a very fresh precedent for any other country contemplating this kind of thing."
[GLOBAL DW]Mr Shoebridge said while Russia and China would have lost regional influence within Venezuela due to Mr Maduro's removal, the countries would "feel licensed" in their own territorial conflicts as a result to act in a similar way as the US.
Russia is Venezuela's most significant military and strategic ally, while China has become a strong economic and ideological partner.
"China has a very public, strident demand to incorporate Taiwan and its 24 million people into its system of government. It will feel emboldened by what Trump has just done," he said.
"Trump will say he's demonstrated US military power, and that will deter powers like China. A raid like this really intimidates smaller countries, and it's just a lesson for big powers."
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi responded on Monday to the US removal of Mr Maduro, saying Beijing would not accept any country acting as the "world's judge".
Trump could set sights on other Latin American nations
A day after the US operation, Mr Trump threatened potential military action against Venezuela's neighbour Colombia.
"Colombia is very sick, too, run by a sick man, who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States, and he's not going to be doing it very long," he told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, local time, in an apparent reference to Colombia's president, Gustavo Petro.
Asked directly whether the US would pursue a military operation against the country, Mr Trump answered: "It sounds good to me."
On Sunday, Mr Petro released a joint statement with the leaders of Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Uruguay and Spain rejecting the US action in Venezuela.
"We affirm the character of Latin America and the Caribbean as a zone of peace, built on mutual respect, the peaceful resolution of controversies and not intervention," the statement said.
"We manifest our concern over any intention for external government control, administration or appropriation of natural resources or strategies, which is incompatible with international law and threatens the political, economic and social stability of the region."
One of the US president's closest colleagues, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, also issued a threat on Sunday to Cuba — another significant trading ally of Venezuela.
"It was Cubans that guarded Maduro. He was not guarded by Venezuelan bodyguards. He had Cuban bodyguards," he told NBC's Meet the Press.
"This is the Western Hemisphere. This is where we live — and we're not going to allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors, and rivals of the United States."
[DW REGIONAL]The US has a long history of intervening in situations of political or civil unrest in Latin American nations and assisting in sparking regime change.
Between the 60s and late 80s, US forces played a part in at least seven major coups d'état in Central and South America that saw political leaders overthrown.
Dr McCarthy-Jones said the Trump administration's veiled threats towards other Latin American nations "brought up a lot of uncomfortable memories".
"This is going to change and strain relations in the region between the US and its counterparts in the Western Hemisphere," she said.
Mr Shoebridge also said the comments foster "a fearful relationship" between the US and nations in Central and South America.
"Fear is not a great basis for long-standing stability [and] durable international relationships," he said.
"There's a problem with all of this American chest-thumping about their tactical success: It complicates America's relationship with Latin American countries, and it's going to be very hard to rebuild trust and confidence."
