Bruce Wolpe, Non-resident Senior Fellow, United States Study Centre, University of Sydney
Everyone knew that once Congress passed legislation requiring the Justice Department to release all the Jeffrey Epstein files, US President Donald Trump would go on a tear to “flood the zone” with other distractions so he could command the agenda.
And that’s exactly what he did. Over the next four days, Trump met with FIFA President Gianni Infantino in the Oval Office to announce expedited visas for fans at next year’s World Cup (though, pointedly, not for all).
He hosted Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with an effusive news conference, where he attacked a journalist for asking a “horrible, insubordinate” question about the killing and dismemberment of a journalist at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. The crown prince was then feted at a White House state dinner with tech giants from Apple to Nvidia.
Trump also lashed out at his political opponents with dangerous, vengeful rhetoric that was shocking, even by his standards.
On Thursday, the president posted on Truth Social to trash a video produced by six Democratic members of Congress, who had all served in the military or intelligence services. They accused the Trump administration of attempting to pit the military and intelligence services against the American people. In a direct address to military and intelligence leaders, they said:
Our laws are clear: You can refuse illegal orders; you must refuse illegal orders. No one has to carry out orders that violate the law or our Constitution.
Trump went ballistic. He called the message “seditious behaviour at the highest level” and said the Democratic lawmakers should be punished “by death”.
By the end of the week, the Epstein affair had faded to the background – by design.
Dire poll numbers
So, what’s going on behind the scenes that’s driving this vitriol? Put simply, Trump is under pressure like at no other time in his second term.
For one, his poll numbers – and those of the Republicans – have hit rock bottom.
A Fox News poll last week had Trump’s favourable rating at just 40% – even worse than Joe Biden’s rating at the same point in his presidency. And three quarters of respondents viewed the economy negatively.
Moreover, the Democrats’ sweep in elections in Virginia and New Jersey on November 5 has given them a major boost ahead of next November’s midterm elections that could determine the control of Congress.
Another poll has the Democrats up 14% over Republicans when respondents were asked who they would vote for if the election was held today. This is the largest gap since 2017, which presaged the Democrats taking back control of the House of Representatives in 2018.
The driver in all this is a growing lack of confidence in Trump’s ability to resolve the affordability crisis in food, rent, insurance, health care and other basic items. Trump’s message that the US economy is the “hottest” on the planet is not resonating with voters.
As was obvious during the US government shutdown, Trump has no interest in meeting with Democrats, much less negotiating with them. He wants to destroy them. And, at a time of heightened political violence, he’s publicly saying he wants some of them executed.
In Trump’s mind, there are almost no limits to his exercise of power. He has deployed the National Guard to patrol US cities, which a judge last week said was illegal, and he has ordered the killings of people in small boats in the Caribbean. He does not tolerate dissent to his exercise of power as commander in chief.
That is precisely the fear the Democrats expressed in their message last week – that the military could potentially be used against American citizens, particularly if Trump feels his power is starting to weaken.
Cracks emerging in Trump’s loyalist base
The other thing that has Trump worried is his stranglehold over the Republican Party. There are signs this may be starting to crack. And given his second term has been boosted by loyalists – both in the party and in his appointments – this could be a cause of significant concern for the president.
Marjorie Taylor Greene is a case in point. For a decade, the Georgia congresswoman has been one of the most vocal Trump and MAGA cheerleaders. But this year, she has increasingly spoken out against Trump for reneging on his commitment to put “America first” with all his foreign policy focus and travel overseas.
Her break with Trump over the Epstein files was the last straw. In recent days, he called her “Marjorie Traitor Greene” and threatened to back a candidate to challenge her in a Republican primary next year.
On Friday, Greene announced she would resign from Congress. She said what she stood for “should not result in me being called a traitor and threatened by the president of the United States.”
Trump has made clear his intention to destroy more of his enemies and others who stand in his way. This is what Trump feels he must do to survive.
But how long Trump manages to ward off other Republican challenges remains to be seen, especially if Republicans up for election next year become really worried about their chances. They could start creating distance between their priorities and how Trump is preforming as president.
With all this pressure mounting on Trump – not to mention a looming showdown with some Republicans over his Ukraine peace plan – he may be heading for a winter of discontent.
Bruce Wolpe receives funding from the United States Studies Centre. He worked for 10 years on the Democratic staff of the United States House of Representatives and has supported Democratic candidates for Congress and the presidency.
