Alex Bellamy, Director of the Asia Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Protect and Professor of Peace and Conflict Studies, The University of Queensland
By any measure, 2025 was not a good year for world peace.
Worse, it was just the latest of a decade-long decline of peace and upsurge of war.
As author of a book on world peace and how we can achieve it (that’s literally the title), here’s my assessment.
Grim numbers
Peace is on the decline around the world by many measures.
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data index, a UN-funded independent monitor, reports global conflict has doubled in the past five years.
The International Institute for Security Studies reports a 23% increase in armed conflict in 2025 alone. Approximately 240,000 people were killed by violent conflict in 2025, it reports.
And the Institute for Economics and Peace’s Global Peace Index reported that peacefulness around the world has deteriorated for the sixth consecutive year.
Some of the symptoms of that decline, it reports, include:
- flatlining global trade
- the loss of 42% of government revenue in the developing world to debt interest repayments (the largest global creditor is now China)
- reductions in the amount spent on peacebuilding
- a 42% decline in the number of troops committed to peacekeeping, and
- a dramatic increase in the internationalisation of armed conflict.
War happens when we have rising conflict and declining commitment to the things that produce peace.
Three things are driving those trends:
- the relative decline of liberal democracy and rise of authoritarian powers
- profound shocks such as the global financial crisis and COVID
- problems generated by economic growth based on globalisation, especially rising inequality and social fragmentation.
Nationalist populism in the West and elsewhere is a product of these three transformations, which have unsettled comfortable post-Cold War assumptions about the progress of democracy, wealth, and peace.
We do actually know what drives war and peace
Some may argue that over the long term, the incidence of war and peace ebbs and flows naturally, driven by structural forces that defy human intervention.
But this ignores the immense strides in our understanding of the factors associated with both war and peacefulness.
The forces driving war and peace are not as mysterious as they once were. For example, it is well established that democracy, gender equality, and fair trade are associated with greater peacefulness.
So, it’s perhaps no coincidence that as war increases, each of these social goods are either in decline or are severely challenged.
It is also well established that peacekeeping reduces civilian victimisation, conflict-related sexual violence, and the likelihood of conflict reignition.
Although individual wars have their own specific causes, war and peace, in general, are shaped by a limited set of factors.
Over the past two decades, researchers have done an excellent job identifying what those factors are
We know war is not randomly unpredictable or inexplicable.
This means war is not beyond human control.
War is a choice
The idea that humans are naturally warlike is as facile as the claim that we are naturally peaceful. Anthropologists and biologists have demonstrated we are both.
War is a social practice and like any social practice, is caused by human decisions.
Humans have agency and choice. Certainly, social structures, political ideas and economic pressures influence choices, but they do not determine them.
This is not to say that “war is over, if we want it”.
War occurs because people have serious disagreements about important questions and values – things they cherish so much they would rather fight than compromise.
But peoples, governments and international organisations can create conditions that make war less likely, and the instruments for preventing, limiting, and resolving war more capable.
What is to be done?
International systems are forged by their members.
In the modern international system, that means states. States are primarily responsible for maintaining peace at home – and though some are obviously better than others, by and large, the state has done an excellent job of reducing violence in everyday life.
The building blocks for peace, therefore, lie in the state, especially those that:
- are accountable (democratic)
- respect human rights
- have capable institutions
- provide dignified living and opportunities for all
- foster more gender equal societies.
But this not something that can be changed quickly or easily, and is a political struggle that each society has to undertake on its own terms.
So, it’s wise to focus on rebuilding those international tools we know can make a difference.
3 urgent priorities for the year ahead
First, we must reaffirm international support for the basic principles of the United Nations Charter, including the principal of non-aggression.
In practical terms, this means standing resolutely against aggression and furnishing those who defend themselves against it – notably Ukraine – with every possible support.
Second, we must revive support for UN and regional peacekeeping and peacebuilding efforts and capabilities. Peacekeeping works; more peacekeeping works better. This is especially true when the priority is protection of civilians, women, peace and security.
Third, addressing the gravest crisis of our time: Gaza. To give peace a chance, that means deploying the International Stabilisation Force (the UN-mandated multinational peacekeeping force outlined in the Gaza peace plan).
It must be given every authority and capability necessary to protect civilians, protect Israel from Hamas, and facilitate the extension of legitimate government under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority as a pathway towards Palestinian statehood.
World peace is possible because peace and war are human institutions, not forces of nature.
Even the most deeply ingrained institutions can be reformed. The abolition of slavery was considered impossible until it was achieved.
Yet to say world peace is possible is not to say that it is likely, much less that it is inevitable. But it is something worth studying and striving for. After all, peace is built in the striving.
Alex Bellamy does not currently receive funding from any organisation.
