After the first round of snap parliamentary elections, France is the closest it has been to having a far-right government since World War II.
In June, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called the election after his centrist Together alliance was trounced by the National Rally (RN) in European Parliament elections.
And on Sunday local time, exit polls suggested that Marine Le Pen's far-right RN party secured the first round of the elections with 34 per cent of votes.
Elections for the 577 seats in France's National Assembly are a two-round process.
In constituencies where no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates, as well as any candidate with more than 12.5 per cent of the total number of registered voters in that constituency, move to a second round.
Whoever wins the most votes in the second round wins the seat.
That round will come this weekend, but the outcome of the vote is still uncertain.
And National Rally's chances of winning power will depend on this second round of voters — and whether its rivals team up in the coming days to keep it from power.
So, what does this all mean for France? How does it work? And will President Macron stay in power?
Why is the snap election happening?
French President Emmanuel Macron called for new parliamentary elections after his centrist party heavily lost to the RN party in the EU elections.
During these elections, the RN party dominated the polls, standing at just over 30 per cent or about twice as much as Mr Macron's pro-Europe centrist party.
"I've decided to give you back the choice of our parliamentary future through the vote," he said in an address to the nation.
"I am therefore dissolving the National Assembly."
Basically, Mr Macron has taken a political gamble that so far appears to have backfired.
How long does President Macron have left and is he losing his power?
This is not a general election and France is not voting for the president — but it will determine who the prime minister is if another party outside Mr Macron's maintains an absolute majority.
Mr Macron has a presidential mandate until May 2027, and has said he would not step down before the end of his term.
This means he will remain as France's president for another three years no matter the outcome of this election.
But he will have to pick a prime minister from the party or alliance with the most seats in the National Assembly, regardless of how divergent their policies are from his own — meaning he may lose his current prime minister, Gabriel Attal.
If this happens, Mr Macron will be forced into an awkward power-sharing arrangement in France known as "cohabitation".
And if RN wins the highest shares of the votes and accepts the prime minister post — which opinion polls and the first round of voting suggest will happen — this period of cohabitation with Mr Macron would begin.
The president is weakened at home during cohabitation but still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defence because he is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties.
The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces and is the one holding the nuclear codes.
That has happened three times in France's modern political history, but with mainstream parties.
But who will take on this new role?
Who is the National Rally and what other parties are running?
The far-right National Rally, President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance and the New Popular Front coalition that includes centre-left, greens and hard-left forces make the three major political blocs
The French system is complex and not proportionate to nationwide support for a party.
The National Rally are currently vying for victory and looking to form France's most far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II.
Marine Le Pen — a three-time runner-up to Macron in presidential elections — has been its face since 2011.
She has previously declared her views as being in line with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
In 2022, Jordan Bardella, then aged 26, became RN's president, sharing the limelight with Ms Le Pen, who remains its parliamentary leader and presidential candidate.
Since their union, the battle-hardened Ms Le Pen and youthful, sharp-witted Mr Bardella have formed a formidable political tag team.
If RN forms government, Mr Bardella would overtake Mr Attal as the youngest prime minister in France's history.
"I aim to be prime minister for all the French people, if the French give us their votes," he said, quoted by the BBC.
There is no single obvious contender to be prime minister on the left, where a wide range of parties have formed a New Popular Front (NFP) in an attempt to join forces against the RN.
The NFP has not said who would be its pick for prime minister.
Some options include Jean-Luc Melenchon, 72, for the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party and Raphael Glucksmann, 44, who headed the Socialist list of candidates in the European elections in early June.
Laurent Berger, 55, is a former head of one of France's main trade unions. He said he does not want to be prime minister but he has a track record of strong opposition and others on the left have put his name forward.
Who is the prime minister now?
In January, Mr Macron appointed then-34-year-old Mr Attal as his new prime minister.
Sometimes dubbed "baby Macron", Mr Attal was tasked with trying to improve Mr Macron's party's chances of winning the June EU elections.
A close Macron ally, he became a government spokesman during the COVID pandemic and was later named as a junior minister in the finance ministry and then education minister in 2023.
The prime minister is accountable to the parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.
"In case of cohabitation, policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister," political historian Jean Garrigues said.
How does the election actually work?
So, we know that elections for the 577 seats in France's National Assembly are a two-round process.
We also know that the top two candidates, as well as any candidate with more than 12.5 per cent of the total number of registered voters in that constituency, move to a second round.
Whoever gets the most votes this weekend will win that seat.
The high turnout on Sunday means some 300 constituencies are now facing potential three-way run-offs which, in theory, favour the RN.
To prevent these three-way run-offs and block the RN, France's centre-right and centre-left politicians have long practised what they call a "republican front", whereby the third-placed candidate drops out of the race and urges voters to rally behind the second-placed candidate.
In a written statement to the press, Mr Macron called on voters to rally behind candidates who are "clearly republican and democratic", which, based on his recent declarations, would exclude candidates from RN and from the LFI party.
All candidates through to the run-off have until Tuesday evening to decide whether to stand down or run in the second round.
What will happen now?
The second and last election will take place this weekend.
The president's party will continue to urge voters through a "republication front", yet its effectiveness has weakened over the years and many voters no longer heed the advice of party leaders.
It is also possible that candidates will refuse to drop out despite guidance from political HQs in Paris.
But talks over the next 48 hours will be crucial and could swing the results significantly, potentially deciding whether the RN reaches an outright majority in parliament or not.
That makes the result of the second round extraordinarily hard to predict.
But if RN does win the highest share of the vote and accepts the prime minister post, a period of cohabitation with Mr Macron would begin.
If RN is the largest party in parliament but is not in power, it could block or modify government proposals. The constitution gives the government some tools to circumvent that, but with limits.
If RN secures a majority, it would be largely guaranteed to get the prime minister job as it could force any government it disagrees with to resign.
It's possible that none of the three groups — the far-right, centrists and left — will be big enough to govern alone, reach a coalition deal or get assurances it can run a viable minority government.
In such a case, France would risk political paralysis, with little or no legislation being adopted and a caretaker government running basic daily affairs.
ABC/wires
