China's air force now seriously threatens the US and Western counterparts in key areas, representing "a potentially revolutionary challenge" to the Indo-Pacific region, a new report says.
It has long been assumed that the US had a superior air force to China and would comfortably handle any aerial battle in any conflict involving Taiwan.
China claims Taiwan as its own territory and Beijing has not ruled out taking it by force.
Experts have told the ABC that China's modernising military technology would make it harder for other countries to intervene in any conflict over Taiwan.
"The PLA (People's Liberation Army) now fields a range of capabilities that can threaten US air force aerial refuelling tankers, US navy carrier groups and forward air bases at 1,000 kilometres or more," the new report from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said.
The London-based defence and security think-tank report added the weapons included "thousands of long-range ground-based, air-launched and maritime ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as long-range ground-based surface-to-air missiles and long-range air-to-air weapons carried by hundreds of advanced fifth-generation fighters".
China's domestic production of the J-20A stealth fighter jet has now exceeded 120 planes per year, the report said, more than double the number of US purchases of the similar F-35 aircraft.
Combined with other aircraft the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is acquiring, the report's author, Justin Bronk, has estimated there would be 1,000 jets operating in the Chinese fleet by 2030.
Dr William Matthews, an independent researcher and consultant specialising in China, said this was significant.
"China … is modernising its fleet at a faster pace than the US is advancing its own capabilities, including through indigenising the production of components including advanced engines," Dr Matthews told the ABC.
"This means the potential is there for China to overtake the US as the world's leader in advanced combat aircraft, and there is a very real possibility that it becomes the first country to deploy a sixth-generation aircraft.
"This would mark an unprecedented milestone in China–US military competition."
Fifth-generation planes are the most technologically advanced in the world currently, flying in highly contested environments against the most modern air and ground threats.
The RUSI report found that the US could use its existing air force assets to achieve "localised and temporary windows of air superiority in a potential conflict".
Despite Beijing's efforts and that assessment, the top US jets are still technically more advanced than China's, according to Dr Williams.
One example of the US's capability was the mission to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities last year, which saw two B-2 stealth bombers fly from Missouri to Iran and back again to drop bunker-busting bombs.
China's modernising missile inventory
Further underlining the modernisation of the Chinese military under President Xi Jinping, China now has two air-to-air missiles, the PL-15 and PL-17, that "significantly out-range not just Russian but also American and European equivalents", according to Dr Bronk.
A recent example came during the battle between Pakistani and Indian air forces last year.
In fighting that broke out after 26 civilians were killed in Indian-controlled Kashmir, a Chinese-built PL-15 shot down a French-made Rafael jet being flown by the Indian air force.
Sources told Reuters that India underestimated the range of the missile, which was reportedly built for international buyers.
Chinese media has previously reported on efforts to develop and test ultra-long-range missiles with ranges of 2,000 kilometres or more.
This effort was likely referenced by the US Department of the Air Force in a report to Congress in 2024.
"Counterair weapons with ranges out to over 1,000 miles [1,609 kilometres] and supported by space-based sensors will place aircraft, such as tankers, that have traditionally operated with impunity, at risk," it said.
Daniel Shats, China analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said, however, that the US deployed the AIM-174B "gunslinger" missile to the Indo-Pacific in 2025, which has a confirmed range of 150 miles (241 kilometres) but "may be able to hit targets at ranges up to 300 miles [482 kilometres]".
He said if the extended range was confirmed, it would put the US on a par with China's PL-15 and PL-17 missiles.
Combat experience also critical
However, Dr Williams cautioned that technology was just one element of any possible war over Taiwan.
He said the US Air Force (USAF) had plenty of real combat experience, whereas the PLAAF had none.
"There are various reports of declining US pilot flight hours relative to their Chinese counterparts. Couple this with the fact that USAF combat experience, while extensive, has not been against a peer-level great power competitor since WWII. The picture is complicated," he said.
"However, in the event of a conflict, the balance is increasingly tipping away from the US … because the PLAAF would be committing most of its resources to such a conflict, whereas the USAF would be allocating part of its resources to the region and it would take time for further resources to be diverted from elsewhere, giving China a distinct advantage."
He said that China's growing domestic industrial capability would mean Beijing could replenish military losses much more quickly than the US, even if its planes were not quite as advanced.
China's near-global control of the rare earth minerals market, which are critical for making some high-end military equipment, could also see the US struggle to replenish lost stocks, he added.
While the PLA has achieved significant technological milestones in recent years, it has also been dogged by a corruption scandal in its ranks.
A number of senior officials have been purged, raising questions about how ready the PLA is to fight a war from a leadership perspective.
What does this mean for Taiwan?
Daniel Shats said in any attempt to take Taiwain, Beijing would focus on protecting ships taking troops to the island and hitting targets that threaten its operation.
He said that the PLA's new inventory would "make it more difficult for US and allied forces to enter and operate in the theatre of war, and especially to get close enough to attack PLA Navy ships — or ground targets in China such as launch sites and command centres".
"Weapons with a range of 200 kilometres or more are sufficient to strike anywhere on or above Taiwan, assuming they're positioned on China's coastline or are air-launched," Mr Shats said.
"Advances in China's ability to destroy or hold at bay enemy aircraft will in turn increase the number of troops it can land on Taiwan, and the speed at which it can do so — the most critical capability to actually seize the island."
William Yang, senior analyst for north-east Asia at think-tank Crisis Group, said China could also use drones to exhaust Taiwan's air defence systems.
"In general, the PLAAF's enhanced combat capabilities mean Beijing would be able to paralyse Taiwan's defence capabilities, key infrastructure, and combat forces more effectively in the early stage of a potential attack on the island, while making any external attempt to intervene more difficult to accomplish," Mr Yang said.
Last year, Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te unveiled plans for a "T-Dome" air defence system, similar to Israel's Iron Dome, to counter Beijing's aerial threat.
Mr Shats said that plan, coupled with the proposal to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, was promising but warned that political gridlock was "a major obstacle to funding necessary defence spending".
Indo-Pacific efforts admirable but slow
Other nations in the Indo-Pacific region, including Australia, Japan and South Korea, have taken significant steps to improve their air forces in recent years.
Combined, the three countries have 159 fifth-generation jets available to them, with Japan expecting delivery of 120 more F-35s in the near future.
The US has 600 fifth-generation aircraft at its disposal.
Both the US and Australia can also deploy dozens of specialty aircraft with early warning and enemy air defence suppression technology, which Mr Shats said was "essential for enabling combat aircraft to operate in a contested environment, such as the People's Republic of China's air defence bubble".
He said the US was also moving to enhance its detection technology so it could pick up aircraft like China's J-20 earlier.
"The US continues to invest billions of dollars into strengthening its regional bases, early warning systems, and the integration with allied forces across the [Indo-Pacific] region," Mr Yang said.
"Meanwhile, a major part of Japan's recent defence modernisation focuses on enhancing the self-defence forces' long-range strike capabilities and their interoperability with American forces."
He said Taiwan was continuing to focus on asymmetric defence capabilities, like drones and other technologies that are more manoeuvrable and cheaper than traditional military hardware.
"Overall, while these efforts are all in the right direction, they are still lagging behind the pace of the PLA's modernisation efforts," he said.
ABC/wires
