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17 Sep 2024 0:39
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  •   Home > News > International

    Ukraine's invasion of Russia was seen by some as a masterstroke, but it might backfire

    Ukraine has managed to capture more territory in a month than Russia has in a year, but with troops stretched and Putin's forces closing in on a key transport hub, some are questioning whether Kyiv's surprise invasion of the Kursk region was a good idea.


    At a secret training camp in Ukraine's east, conscript soldiers are getting ready for battle.

    After a brief pep talk from their soon-to-be commander, they line up to fire machine guns at targets in a dusty, repurposed quarry as the occasional drone from the frontline flies overhead.

    What's most striking about these soldiers is their age. They're in their 40s and 50s.

    More than two years into this war, Ukraine's troops are stretched.

    While territorial gains have been slow-going for both sides over the past 18 months on the front lines in Ukraine, Russia is now gaining the upper hand in a pivotal battle near the city of Pokrovsk — a key transport hub — in the besieged Donesk region.

    "The war is now in an active phase and is considered the most difficult it has been in the Donesk region," deputy commander Taras said.

    The 32-year-old, who goes by the call sign "Italia" because he worked on Italian cruise ships before the war, tells us soldier training is being fast-tracked, because there's no time to waste.

    "The enemy behaves insidiously, brazenly. They are trying to break through the defensive line," he said.

    After more than a year of dour trench warfare, in which both Russia and Ukraine made scarce territorial gains and sustained significant troop losses, the complexion of the war is changing more rapidly now.

    Ukraine turned the conflict on its head with its surprise invasion of Russia's Kursk region in August, in which it has gained more territory in a month than Moscow has this year.  

    But what was seen by some as a military masterstroke hasn't stopped Russian President Vladimir Putin's advance in Ukraine's east.

    Russian forces have sought to capture Pokrovsk for months but have hastened their march in recent weeks.

    With troops now massed on the outskirts of the city and, according to some analysts, outnumbering Ukraine's four-to-one, there are fears it could fall within weeks.  

    Mychailo, 55, is among those conscripts training in the quarry. While he has previously served as a member of Ukraine's armed forces, he had avoided fighting in the war against Russia, until now.

    "I had a dream that I joined the army again. It so happened that I was drafted into the army. But not in peace time — it turns out that there is fate. No-one escapes from fate," he said.

    His voice shakes and his eyes well with tears as he describes how he's feeling about heading into a combat many are expecting Ukraine to lose.

    "We are worried. Everyone is worried. No-one knows but God what will happen tomorrow," he said.

    "We want to get rid of all this as soon as possible ... so that there is peace on earth, so that no-one fights."

    In May, Ukraine lowered its conscription age to 25 and declared it would reassess disability waivers to boost its fighting force.

    The stricter conditions sent men into hiding, as so-called conscription squads stalk the streets looking for eligible recruits.

    Invading Russia was a strategy to draw enemy troops from key battles in Ukraine, but Moscow didn't shift its men to any great extent, instead pushing forward its current position.

    The invasion was initially seen by many in Ukraine as morale-boosting, but some soldiers are now questioning if it will cost their country in the long run.

    "It seems to me that it would be better if we concentrated these forces completely on the defence of this direction, so as not to miss either breakthroughs or advances in this direction, ideally to push them to the borders," deputy commander Taras said.

    "Now, we have lost a little bit of territory, and this scattering of troops has led to consequences."

    'Nothing will be left of this city'

    Pokrovsk is an important strategic target because of its transport links to Ukraine's industrial heartland, the Donbas region, which has been mostly occupied by Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022.

    Putin has had his eyes on Donbas since he annexed Crimea in 2014 and is now closer than ever to capturing it.

    Serhii, the commander who will be leading the new conscripts into battle, says he is resigned to the fact Ukraine will sustain a "territorial loss" in the war.

    "The main thing in these battles is to save your life in order to fight back later," he said.

    "The fact that they are now taking territories means nothing.

    "The most important thing for us is that we save the soldiers' lives, so that they can then be driven from here."

    Before the war, Pokrovsk's 69,000 residents mostly worked industrial jobs such as mining and construction.

    Russia's invasion has caused mass evacuations on a scale not seen here since the start of the war.

    More than 20,000 people have left Pokrovsk so far but tens of thousands remain, even as Putin's soldiers are marching towards the city.

    As shelling intensifies, the sick and the elderly are still trying to get out.

    East SOS, a non-government organisation that helps people evacuate conflict zones, has been facilitating people to flee Pokrovsk.

    This week, they rescued three generations of the same family from the city, including two people with limited mobility.

    Roman, one of the group's members, has been helping people get to safety since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

    The family he helped this week was too distressed to talk. They just wanted to make their train to Kyiv.

    Roman was part of the evacuation crew for Pokrovsk when the war first broke out.

    "I hope they [Russian soliders] won't get here, because if they get there, nothing will be left of this city, like the other cities they reached," he said.

    At the local train station, desperate residents laden with possessions hurry towards the waiting train.  "Pain, tears, despair. But we hope for the best. God will help," one woman says, as she clutches to her pet dog and cat.Every few minutes they're reminded of the threat as another round of artillery is fired in the distance.

    "It's sad, I don't want to go. We said goodbye to our parents, but we hope to meet soon," another woman says.

    She's just said goodbye to her parents who, despite the risks, have decided to stay behind.

    "People of their age tend to have stronger bonds to the place. I have my child, I am saving my child, and they are still waiting here till it's impossible to stay," she said.

    Capturing Russian territory gave Ukraine a bargaining chip which it can use in future negotiations with Russia. It also boosted the confidence of its allies, who've been supplying it with weapons.

    With a US election looming and the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency, analysts argue Kyiv needed to show its biggest backer there is still value in arming it.

    But it came at a cost to the frontline. The deteriorating situation in Pokrovsk is the pay-off for Ukraine's invasion into Russia.

    Putin chose to expend young, inexperienced conscripts manning his border and a small part of rural Russia he doesn't appear to care for.

    Ukraine's cities away from the frontline are taking evacuees from areas it is now too dangerous to stay in.

    It's a trend that has been increasing significantly in recent times.  

    "There was no power for a month, I had some food but I couldn't cook it. I still had water. There was no bread. I could have baked it myself, but there was no power," one evacuee from Pokrovsk, Valentyna Gusak said.

    She's staying at temporary accommodation in Dnipro, around three hours from her home.

    "I am very concerned. Everyone has the same grief to share.

    "This is a place to sleep in silence and they feed us. Before this, I did not eat anything at all for 10 days. Every morning, I opened the house and there was a fog from [the] shelling."

    Valentina, like others here, want return to their homes, they're just not sure what will be left. 


    ABC




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