Australia and Papua New Guinea will on Thursday announce they are beginning negotiations on a defence treaty, in a move that could have major implications for national security and the Pacific's strategic landscape.
The announcement comes just 14 months after the two nations signed a landmark security agreement, and three months after they inked a $600 million deal handing PNG its own NRL team in return for strategic assurances designed to lock out China.
The latest negotiations will be officially kick-started in Brisbane on Thursday morning by Defence Minister Richard Marles and his PNG counterpart Billy Joseph, as Australia scrambles to reinforce defence ties in the Pacific in the face of constant pressure from Beijing.
In a statement, Mr Marles said he wanted to take the defence relationship with PNG to the "next level" through a formal treaty.
"The shared ambition for a treaty-level agreement would expand and modernise Australia and Papua New Guinea's defence relationship and facilitate deeper integration," he said.
"Practically, a treaty would make it easier for Australia and PNG to support each other's security, and contribute to the collective security of the region."
Papua New Guinean Prime Minister James Marape indicated the negotiations could include a proposal for Papua New Guineans to serve in the Australian Defence Force.
"Australia has certainly indicated they have been struggling to find manpower to work not just the frontline defence force sector, but are struggling to find those who can work in defence industries," Mr Marape said.
He said PNG had "many grade 12 dropouts" who could help fill those personnel shortages.
"Australia [is] certainly giving consideration for getting Papua New Guineans to serve also in that space," he said.
"Treaty is an elevated agreement … it will be all-embracing. It's a process so I can't pre-empt the final outcome."
The ADF has explored options for recruiting Pacific Islanders but under current rules they would face stringent entry criteria and must apply for Australian citizenship within 90 days of joining.
While there is no timeline to finalise negotiations on the new pact, the ABC has been told that both countries are keen to move rapidly to reach an agreement.
'Strategic insulation against China'
Australia has deep and longstanding defence ties with Papua New Guinea, and is already ramping up assistance for PNG police, the judiciary and the military under the 2023 defence agreement, which entered into force late last year.
That pact already says PNG and Australia will consult and coordinate with each other if they face a security threat.
But analysts say a binding treaty would enshrine Australia's position as PNG's key security partner, setting yet another barrier in front of China as it tries to strike its own policing pact with Port Moresby.
It might not be easy for Australia to secure political backing for the new treaty in PNG, which has a constitution requiring close parliamentary scrutiny and approval of international treaties.
The United States faced a political backlash and a legal challenge when it signed its own sweeping defence cooperation agreement with Papua New Guinea in 2023.
Mihai Sora from the Lowy Institute said Australia scaled back its own defence pact with PNG from a treaty-level agreement that same year.
He told the ABC that he was "not sure what has changed" to remove hurdles that were "identified as insurmountable obstacles" just two years ago.
"Perhaps all the extra hundreds of millions Australia has been pouring into the NRL 'strategic trust goodwill fund' has helped to spur new thinking on those thorny legal questions," he said.
"Or perhaps Australia is at the stage where it's throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks, when it comes to cultivating some sort of strategic insulation against China."
PNG has historically prized its strategic independence, and multiple governments have vowed not to take sides in the strategic contest between China and Western powers throughout the Pacific.
But the Marape government has drawn much closer to Australia on military cooperation, and its Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko last year ruled out signing a defence agreement with China, saying he wanted to prioritise economic ties with Beijing.
Australian officials are also watching the ongoing dispute between New Zealand and Cook Islands over a strategic partnership that the Pacific island nation signed with China last week.
On Tuesday night, the foreign minister of New Zealand, Winston Peters, said the two governments had to find a way to "re-set" the relationship, suggesting he wanted to strike a new agreement clarifying exactly what their obligations were under free association.
"We will also need to find a way, as we did in 1973 and 2001, to formally re-state the mutual responsibilities and obligations that we have for one another and the overall parameters and constraints of the free association model," he said.
"Resetting and formally re-stating the parameters of the relationship is not a small task. But it is one which we are confident we can meet — powered by the history of goodwill and common bonds between New Zealand and the Cook Islands people."
Mihai Sora said the "Cook Islands-China-New Zealand fiasco" had "no doubt sent shivers up more than a few spines in Canberra" and cemented its determination to strike clear cut agreements with Pacific nations like PNG.
"It's sensible for Australia to seek to cover all bases — even legal — in this season of global and regional strategic uncertainty," he said.
"Unfortunately for Canberra, PNG is likely to extract an eye-watering price, judging by recent deals."
Additional reporting by Marian Faa
