New polling shows most Australians want to stick with the US alliance, despite holding overwhelmingly negative views towards the Trump administration and harbouring deep worries about the erosion of American democracy.
The data captures some of the complexities and contradictions in Australian public attitudes towards the nation's most significant and powerful ally as the prime minister prepares for his first substantive meeting with Donald Trump next week in Washington, DC.
The polling conducted for the United States Studies Centre has found that just 16 per cent of Australians think the second Trump administration has been good for Australia.
But only 17 per cent of those polled said Australia should end its alliance with the US, well below the 37 per cent who said in 2023 that Canberra should pull the plug if Donald Trump was re-elected.
Forty-seven per cent of Australians also agreed that Australia needs the US alliance "more than ever" — well ahead of the 21 per cent who disagreed, or the 26 per cent who were neutral.
The USSC's director of research, Jared Mondschein, said the polling showed that many Australians continue to see the US as "strategically indispensable" and believe Australia has no choice but to stick with the alliance in a strategically uncertain environment.
"The Australian people are by no means fans of Donald Trump," he told the ABC.
"But I think that at the same time Australians can see the strategic importance of the alliance, and that there aren't really many alternatives to the alliance."
However, the poll also demonstrates that there are widespread and serious concerns about democratic decay in the US under the second Trump administration.
A total of 73 per cent of those polled registered concern about the future of US democracy, with 46 per cent saying they were "very" concerned and a further 27 per cent saying they were "a little" concerned.
A total of 82 per cent of Australians said they were worried about potential political violence in America, with 48 per cent "very" concerned and a further 34 per cent a "little" concerned.
Unconvinced AUKUS will survive
Australians were also very negative about the Trump administration's performance in Asia, with only 24 per cent seeing the US as "mostly helpful" in the region, and 33 per cent saying it was "mostly harmful."
The results on the AUKUS nuclear submarine plan are extremely mixed.
There was broad support for the hugely ambitious project: just 17 per cent of Australians support cancelling AUKUS, while 44 per cent oppose that idea. Twenty-three per cent neither agree nor disagree, and 16 per cent are unsure.
But large numbers of Australians also said they were not convinced AUKUS will survive the Trump administration, with 40 per cent saying the president will "probably" cancel it, and only 16 per cent expressing confidence he would preserve it.
There was also a hunger for more clarity and information from the government, with just 27 per cent of those polled agreeing the federal government has properly explained why Australia needs nuclear-powered submarines.
Jared Mondschein said that statistic was "telling."
"Australia is exercising its agency here; it's showing it can work with the US as well as deepening its engagement in the region," he said.
"But I think the government can also better explain to its citizens why its making the sizeable multi-generational investment that it is with AUKUS."
