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5 Jan 2025 19:15
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  •   Home > News > International

    Here's what is known about the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash

    Experts say an Azerbaijan Airlines plane carrying 67 people, that crashed in Khazakstan killing at least 38 people, was shot down by Russian air defence systems. Here's what we know so far.


    Thirty-eight people are dead after a plane crash in south-west Kazakhstan.

    Nearly 70 people were aboard an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane when it crashed over Aktau on Wednesday (local time).

    Experts say the Azerbaijan Airlines plane may have been downed by Russian air defence — a claim Russian authorities have denied.

    Here's what we know so far.

    How did the Azerbaijan plane crash?

    Flight J2-8243, an Embraer passenger plane, had flown from Azerbaijan's capital Baku to Grozny, in Russia's southern Chechnya region, before veering hundreds of kilometres across the Caspian Sea.

    It crashed while trying to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan, after flying east across the Caspian Sea.

    It went down near the coast about 3 kilometres from Aktau.

    [MAP] 

    Aviation experts have said the Azerbaijani Airlines plane most likely went down after being hit by Russian air defence systems.

    Smartphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before hitting the ground and exploding.

    A rescue operation at the scene pulled 29 survivors — including two children — from the wreckage.

    All survivors were taken to hospital and 11 remain in critical condition.

    One survivor remains unidentified.

    Kazakhstan's Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev said the scene was confronting.

    "The bodies are in poor condition, mostly burnt, all collected," he said.

    "Now they will be in the morgue, and identification will take place."

    One woman, known only as Emira, aided in the rescue and told Kazakh radio about what she witnessed.

    ""A little girl came out. She looked at me and said, 'Save my mom, my mom is still there'.

    "She was crying and begging, 'Please save her, save her,'" she said.

    "The front [part of the plane] was on fire.

    "We rescued the survivors.

    "Their bodies were covered in blood, they were crying. Everyone was asking for help."

    What do experts say was the possible cause?

    Kazakhstani, Azerbaijani and Russian authorities have said they are investigating the crash. 

    Commercial jet manufacturer, Embraer said in a statement the company was "ready to assist all relevant authorities".

    Russia's civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.

    While officials remained tight-lipped, an Azerbaijani MP, Rasim Musabekov, directly pointed the finger at Russia. 

    Mr Musabekov told the Azerbaijani news agency Turan that the plane was fired upon in the skies over Grozny and urged Russia to offer an official apology.

    Some aviation experts have said the holes seen in the plane's tail section after the crash indicated that it could have come under fire from Russian air defence systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.

    Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world's airspace and airports for risks, said the analysis of the fragments of the crashed plane indicated a 90-99 per cent probability that it was hit by a surface-to-air missile.

    Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the "Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defence system."

    Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defence systems in Russia since the full-scale war in Ukraine began in February 2022.

    In an online post, FlightRadar24 said the aircraft had faced "strong GPS jamming" that interfered with flight tracking data allowing it to monitor planes' flight path.

    Russia has extensively used sophisticated jamming equipment to fend off drone attacks.

    What has been Russia's response?

    The Kremlin said prior to reports that the aircraft had been downed by Russian defence systems that it would be improper to comment until the inquiry was concluded.

    "It is wrong to build hypotheses before the conclusions of the investigation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

    Officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine it.

    Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that the images of the crashed plane's tail show damage compatible with shrapnel from the Russian Pantsyr-S1 air defence system.

    It's unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of kilometres east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land in Russia after the plane was hit, he said.

    He added that they probably faced restrictions on landing at a closer venue and may have thought that the damage was not critical.

    In Azerbaijan, Caliber online newspaper also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defence system and also had its systems affected by jamming equipment as it was approaching Grozny.

    The paper questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the drone attack in the area on Wednesday, and why they didn't allow the plane to land in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.

    How did Azerbaijan react?

    Azerbaijan observed a nationwide day of mourning on Thursday. 

    National flags were at half-mast, traffic across the country stopped at noon, and sirens were sounded from ships and trains.

    At a news conference on Wednesday (local time), Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.

    Russia's Emergencies Ministry flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.

    AP

    © 2025 ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation. All rights reserved

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