A ministerial briefing on National Emergency Management shows a 25 percent chance of a major earthquake in the zone in the next 50 years.
The zone starts in the northeastern South Island and extends up past East Cape.
It says a major quake and tsunami could leave tens of thousands of people dead, injured or displaced - and damage in excess of 144 billion-dollars.
Researchers say if not in our lifetime, it'll be in the next generation - but crucially, it could happen tomorrow.
