Ethnic guerilla fighters and pro-democracy forces have claimed an important victory after reportedly taking control of the major trading town on Myanmar's border with Thailand.
However, observers are concerned the "humiliating" defeat will prompt a counteroffensive from the military junta that could have devastating consequences for the civilian population.
The Karen National Union (KNU), an ethnic-based group aligned with pro-democracy forces, claimed on Thursday to have eliminated the last remaining battalion of State Administrative Council (SAC) forces in the border township of Myawaddy overnight.
"At this time, all military council camps in Myawaddy have been attacked and occupied," the KNU said in a Facebook post.
"The remaining military council remains will continue to be cleared.
"The public is advised to cooperate without panic."
[MAP: Myawaddy]Around 200 fleeing soldiers were gathered at the border crossing bridge into Thailand, KNU spokesperson Saw Taw Nee told Reuters.
Local news outlet Khit Thit reported Thai authorities were in talks with the soldiers to decide whether to grant them refuge.
Thailand's military has stepped up security on its side of the border, deploying army vehicles equipped with roof-mounted machine guns.
A spokesperson for the Myanmar junta did not respond to Reuter's calls for comment.
At least 2,000 people have already been displaced within Myanmar by the latest round of fighting between the rebels and the military, according to civil society group Karen Peace Support Network.
Border crossings in the area were open for civilians who were arriving in Thailand from Myanmar in large numbers, said police official Borwornphop Soontornlekha, the immigration superintendent in Tak, the province on the Thai side of the border.
"Usually there are about 2,000 people who cross into Mae Sot from Myawaddy each day but the last three days the number was almost 4,000 a day," he told Reuters.
'A crucial victory for our revolution'
Myanmar has been in turmoil after the military deposed an elected civilian government in a 2021 coup, sparking a nationwide armed resistance that is now operating alongside some long-established ethnic rebel groups.
The fall of the Myawaddy comes after a days-long assault by the KNU's armed wing, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), and members of the pro-democracy People's Defence Forces.
The KNU last week said about 600 SAC soldiers and family members had surrendered following the capture of a regional military headquarters about 10km west of Myawaddy.
"Today KNU-led joint resistance forces captured the remaining military base in Myawaddy," Kyaw Zaw, a spokesperson for Myanmar's National Unity Government, told Reuters.
The body is a shadow administration of ousted politicians and anti-junta groups.
"This is a crucial victory for our revolution since Myawaddy is an important border town for the junta, one of the main [sources of] income from border trade," he added.
What comes next?
Myanmar conflict researcher Dominique Lefebvre said the fall of Myawaddy was another "huge" victory for the resistance forces and a "humiliating" defeat for the SAC.
It appeared to show that the junta was thinly spread, increasingly isolated and struggling to manage offensives on multiple fronts but "overly jubilant pronouncements" that such victories marked the full collapse of the SAC were premature, he said.
Despite being on the back foot — the junta recently implemented forced conscription to boost troop numbers — it still has superior technology, air power and artillery.
Amid reports of junta reinforcements heading to Myawaddy from the west, Mr Lefebvre expressed concern about the likely counteroffensive.
"There is a well-founded fear that this will be dramatic attempt at a reprisal in what has been a series of humiliating defeats," the London School of Economics anthropology PhD Candidate said.
"The history of the regime in torching entire villages to the ground or flattening them in air strikes sadly points in this direction.
"If the junta’s counteroffensive reaches Myawaddy, it will likely mean fierce fighting along the Thai border, likely resulting in the destruction of an important trade and border city and a large number of civilians flying across the border if the Thai military doesn’t find a way to mediate the conflict."
The loss of Myawaddy is just the latest in a string of stinging defeats for the junta since an alliance of three ethnic armed organisations, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance, launched a combined offensive in the country's north in October.
Since then, the military government has lost control of large areas bordering China, Bangladesh and India.
Hunter Marston, a South-East Asia researcher at the Australian National University, said the town's fall represented a further loss of junta control over its "strategic periphery".
"This is a classic challenge of counterinsurgency and an indicator of the SAC's weakness: it can only control the urban centres," he said.
"In the long run that is not sufficient to control a country. Think of Kabul against the Taliban or Saigon trying to retain control over Vietnam's National Liberation Front."
While Myawaddy in itself was not vital for the junta, Mr Marston said it was still a major trade point.
"With the resistance in control of a number of strategic checkpoints along the border with China and Thailand, the junta's loss of control over the border undermines its claim to de jure authority and its ability to oversee the transfer of humanitarian assistance through Thailand," he said.
"It may also facilitate the transfer of arms to the resistance from groups operating in Thailand, something the Myanmar military and Thai police have been keen to crack down on in the past."
A 'game changer'?
Located in Kayin State on the Asian Highway linking Myanmar's largest city, Yangon, and Thailand's capital, Bangkok, the town of Myawaddy is the most active crossing point for trade on the Myanmar-Thailand border.
According to Myanmar's Commerce Ministry, more than $1US billion ($1.5 billion) worth of two-way trade passed through the town in the 12 months to April.
David Brenner, a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Sussex, said in a post on Twitter the fall of Myawaddy to the opposition forces was a "game changer".
"It’s not 'just' another urban centre in the hands of the revolution, but potentially the transformation of resistance logistics to a completely new dimension," Dr Brenner said.
The KNU and their allies controlling the trade route may allow them to "increase revenue streams dramatically", he told the ABC.
Dr Brenner also noted that Myawaddy's twin town on the Thai side of the border, Mae Sot, had been serving as a main place of shelter for people fleeing violence in Myanmar, the primary logistical hub for humanitarian aid into Myanmar’s conflict zones, and as a "space of cross-border resistance to Myanmar‘s military" for decades.
"If the KNU can fully liberate Myawaddy and hold on to it, Myawaddy would become the natural hub for anti-junta resistance," he said.
"This is why we need to wait and see how the military will respond.
"I expect them to focus their increasingly limited firepower on Myawaddy."
Mr Lefebvre said the broader implications of the town's capture in itself were complicated.
For months, the KNLA had already been exerting some level of control over the areas surrounding Myawaddy, disrupting the trade route, controlling multiple toll gates and able to bring tactical supplies across the border.
He agreed that if the resistance were able to maintain control of border traffic that would provide a significant financial benefit.
The town's capture could also have "massive implications" for Myanmar-Thai relations and Thailand's ability to negotiate with the resistance, he added.
"The main question that hangs over all this is do these groups really have the manpower to fully administer or control these areas at the moment," he said.
"This is difficult to imagine, especially if they want to continue offences in other areas or they face continued attacks from the SAC.
"It's likely, or very probable, that the regime would bomb the town if it's completely surrendered, unless there's some kind of arrangement in place between the various different armed groups there, mediation with the Thais, or if the regime is able to still trade over the bridge, perhaps through the [formerly SAC-aligned] Border Guard Force."
ABC/Reuters
